Alatengheili vs Diaz
Alatengheili (18-10-2) faces Juan Diaz (16-1-1) in a bantamweight 3-round bout at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit on Nov 14, 2026.
ScheduledSaturday, November 14 · Early prelims from 5:00 PM ETBantamweight · 3 rounds
24%win chance, no vig76%
Rounds 2.5 · over −166 · under +130
3 US books ·
Model's read
Pro
Start 7-day free trialThe model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.Checking your plan for the model's read…
How it endsThe books' no-vig prices for every way the fight can end. The books price the round and the method separately (never a method inside a given round). Each number is the median chance across books with their margin removed; the price beside it is the best at a US sportsbook. The chance it is still going after a round is read off the round prices.Market
The books give Diaz 76% to win.
The books haven't posted method or round prices for this bout yet; they usually do in fight week.
How their last fights endedEach fighter's tracked fights before this one, oldest to newest.History
Alatengheili8 of 10 to the judges
7-3 in the last 10. 2 of 7 wins inside the distance; 0 of 3 losses were finishes.
- WDecisionvs John CastanedaSep 2026
- LDecisionvs Da'Mon BlackshearApr 2025
- WDecisionUFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. MurphyMay 2024
- LDecisionvs Chris GutierrezOct 2023
- WDecisionvs Chad AnheligerSep 2022
Diaz6 of 10 to the judges
9-1 in the last 10. 4 of 9 wins inside the distance; the loss went to the judges.
- WSubmission · R2vs Malcolm WellmakerMay 2026
- WKO/TKO · R2vs Kwon Won IlOct 2025
- WDecisionLux Fight League 50Feb 2025
- WKO/TKO · R4Lux Fight League 47Nov 2024
- WDecisionLux Fight League 42Apr 2024
Rates against the divisionEach fighter's striking and grappling rates from his box-scored fights; the tick on each bar is the division average and a full bar is the division's top 5%. Hover a row for what it measures. A rate with no box scores behind it reads no data, never a zero.History
from box-scored fights
Alatengheili13 fights · 131 minDiaz12 fights · 19 min · small sample
Striking
- 3.0Strikes landed / min3.93.0Strikes landed / min3.9
- 5.3Strikes absorbed / minlower is better3.65.3Strikes absorbed / minlower is better3.6
- 32%Striking accuracy42%32%Striking accuracy42%
- 56%Striking defense59%56%Striking defense59%
- 0.14Knockdowns / 15 min0.580.14Knockdowns / 15 min0.58
Grappling
- 1.9Takedowns / 15 min3.71.9Takedowns / 15 min3.7
- 43%Takedown accuracy50%43%Takedown accuracy50%
- 100%Takedown defenseno data100%Takedown defenseno data
- 0.0Sub. attempts / 15 min0.60.0Sub. attempts / 15 min0.6
- 0.23Ground advances / 15 min0.100.23Ground advances / 15 min0.10
Tick: Bantamweight average (103 fighters with 3+ tracked fights). Bars start at zero; a full bar is the division's top 5%. The better number of each row is bold. Grey rates are a small sample: under 30 tracked minutes behind them.
Strike targets and paceStrike targets are the share of significant strikes to the head, body and legs. Pace is how long his tracked fights lasted and how often he finished early inside the first round.History
Where the strikes land
AlatengheiliHead 66% · Body 20% · Leg 14%
DiazHead 70% · Body 13% · Leg 17%
Pace
AlatengheiliDiaz
10.6 minAvg fight length14.4 min
2Round-1 finish wins2
12Tracked fights12
Alatengheili
last 5 fights
Form: 3-2 in his last 5 · on W1. Since his last fight: 49 d.
- WDecision - Split · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelossig. str. 28/115 · abs. 55 · TD 3/8 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Lvs Da'Mon BlackshearApr 26, 2025Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Pratessig. str. 61/190 · abs. 125 · TD 0/1 · KD 0 · sub 0
- WUFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. MurphyMay 18, 2024Decision - Unanimous · R3sig. str. 18/59 · abs. 37 · TD 3/4 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Lvs Chris GutierrezOct 14, 2023Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barbozasig. str. 38/133 · abs. 110 · TD 2/4 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Wvs Chad AnheligerSep 10, 2022Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Fergusonsig. str. 49/131 · abs. 39 · TD 2/2 · KD 0 · sub 0
Juan Diaz
last 5 fights
Form: 5-0 in his last 5 · on W9. Since his last fight: 6 mo.
- Wvs Malcolm WellmakerMay 17, 2026Submission · R2 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costasig. str. 13/25 · abs. 15 · TD 5/8 · KD 0 · sub 1
- Wvs Kwon Won IlOct 15, 2025KO/TKO · R2 · Dana White's Contender Series: Season 9, Week 10sig. str. 58/146 · abs. 50 · TD 2/6 · KD 1 · sub 0
- WLux Fight League 50Feb 21, 2025Decision - Unanimous · R5no stats
- WLux Fight League 47Nov 1, 2024TKO (Doctor Stoppage) · R4no stats
- WLux Fight League 42Apr 26, 2024Decision - Unanimous · R3no stats
Alatengheili: full history · 12 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | vs John CastanedaUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos | WDecision - Split · R3 | 28/115 | 55 | 3/8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-04-26 | vs Da'Mon BlackshearUFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 61/190 | 125 | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-05-18 | UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 18/59 | 37 | 3/4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-10-14 | vs Chris GutierrezUFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 38/133 | 110 | 2/4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-09-10 | vs Chad AnheligerUFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 49/131 | 39 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-04-16 | UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 | WKO/TKO · R1 | 9/17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020-10-03 | UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 46/171 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-12-21 | UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie | WDecision - Split · R3 | 47/131 | 68 | 4/13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-08-31 | UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 36/89 | 85 | 3/7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018-05-12 | Road FC 47: 2018 Openweight Grand Prix: Opening Round | WKO/TKO · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2018-03-10 | Road Fighting Championship 46 | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2017-03-11 | Road Fighting Championship 37 | LKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
Diaz: full history · 12 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | vs Malcolm WellmakerUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa | WSubmission · R2 | 13/25 | 15 | 5/8 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025-10-15 | vs Kwon Won IlDana White's Contender Series: Season 9, Week 10 | WKO/TKO · R2 | 58/146 | 50 | 2/6 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025-02-21 | Lux Fight League 50 | WDecision - Unanimous · R5 | no stats | ||||
| 2024-11-01 | Lux Fight League 47 | WTKO (Doctor Stoppage) · R4 | no stats | ||||
| 2024-04-26 | Lux Fight League 42 | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-12-01 | Lux Fight League 38 | WDecision - Unanimous · R5 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-07-21 | Lux Fight League 34 | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-02-03 | Lux Fight League 30 | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-04-29 | UWC Mexico 33: Sabori vs. Rodriguez | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2021-10-23 | vs Rodrigo VeraFFC 47: Vera vs. Diaz | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2021-08-13 | UWC Mexico 28: Luna vs. Benitez | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2020-12-10 | FFC 44: Basurto vs. Ribovics | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | no stats | ||||
Pro
Every book and how the line moved
Each sportsbook's prices side by side, the best number each way and the line's movement since it opened.
Checking your plan…
Fighter numbers are from tracked fights. Prices are the best at US sportsbooks and win chances take the margin out: the books' view, not a forecast. Descriptive data. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.