Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mick Parkin vs Johnny Walker

4:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Mick Parkinby KO/TKO~ Round 1
66% to win · 30% that it’s by KO/TKO · 55% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1
Model fair price -194
Probetrics fight model
Johnny Walker
34% +194
Mick Parkin
66% -194
How it ends
Walker by KO/TKO
16.7%
fair +497
Walker by SUB
1.4%
fair +7004
Walker by DEC
15.9%
fair +530
Parkin by KO/TKO
29.5%
fair +239
Parkin by SUB
7.8%
fair +1183
Parkin by DEC
28.7%
fair +249

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R129.9%fair +234
Ends in R216.5%fair +507
Ends in R39.1%fair +1004
Goes distance44.5%fair +125
How this fight plays out

The model makes Parkin a solid 66% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.9 vs 4.6 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Parkin is most dangerous early — 5 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Parkin's most likely path is by KO/TKO (30%), and the fight goes the distance 45% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.