Lightning vs Rangers Prediction — NHL, Oct 1, 2026

Model pick: Lightning (57%), locked Oct 1; Rangers won 5–1 (graded a miss).

Tampa Bay Lightning

New York Rangers

1–5

Final

Win probability

TB 57%

43% NYR

New York Rangers won, 5–1. The pick was Tampa Bay Lightning at 57% — incorrect.

Save image Square

Margin the probability implies

TB by 0.4

goals

TB win probability

57%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

4 of 11

Too early to read: 11 graded at 55–60%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.