Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction — NHL, Sep 29, 2026

Model pick: Maple Leafs (50%), locked Sep 29; Canadiens won 3–2 (graded a miss).

Montreal Canadiens

Toronto Maple Leafs

3–2

Final

Win probability

MTL 50%

50% TOR

Montreal Canadiens won, 3–2. The pick was Toronto Maple Leafs at 50% — incorrect.

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TOR win probability

50%

overtime and shootout included

Right at this confidence

7 of 15

Too early to read: 15 graded at 50–55%

Winner picks only; a game decided in overtime or a shootout counts like any other. Where books price a game, the win probability is the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before puck drop and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model is tested →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.