Predictions
NFL picks and predictions, Week 18, 2026
Winner calls graded each week, set beside the betting favorite; the model's own margin and total for context.
About this page
Winner calls graded each week, set beside the betting favorite; the model's own margin and total for context.
Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.
Locked before the start, graded afterWon–lost
38–26
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
59%
90% range 49–69%
Graded
64
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
41.0
90% range 34.8–47.2
Win rate 59%90% rangeIts probabilities said 64%
Won 38. Its stated probabilities expected 41.0 (90% range 34.8–47.2): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.
Betting favorite on the same 64 priced games: 40–24 (ours 38–26). When we took the other side: 2–4.
By method: model alone 20–13 (33), market-anchored 18–13 (31).
Backtest, not in the record: 63.7% of 1,693 games (walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2020–25 seasons).
15 upcoming games with a model pick
Pro- Free pick this week →Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysThu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET · Week 5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET · Week 5
- Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Week 5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Week 5
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Week 5
- Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Week 5
- Cleveland Browns at New York JetsSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Week 5
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Week 5
- New York Giants at Washington CommandersSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Week 5
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Week 5
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersSun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET · Week 5
- Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsSun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Week 5
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle SeahawksSun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Week 5
- Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · Week 5
- Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsMon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET · Week 5
Every pick, with its win probability and the reasoning. Locked before the start and graded in public; the record is always free.
Unlock the picks with Pro7-day free trial for new subscribers · cancel anytimeSee a real Pro page: NFL: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, a finished game →