The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
93%Indiana HoosiersStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Indiana Hoosiers 98%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IU by 33.9market IU by 24.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.1 pointsmarket 56.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Indiana Hoosiers at 93% to win, with the market at IU by 24.5.
IU has the advantage in rushing: IU rushing ranks #8, RUTG defends it at #125; the other way RUTG #115 into IU's #13.
IU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: IU third-down conversion ranks #13, RUTG defends it at #86; the other way RUTG #95 into IU's #14.
Form: IU has the better last five games by 35.6 points a game (RUTG -2.2, IU +33.4).
Home field is with RUTG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it IU by 33.9 against a market IU by 24.5: 9.4 points of daylight in IU's favour. The model's total is 58.1 against a line of 56.5: 1.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IU by 33.9 · market IU by 24.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
IU
Clear advantage
IU passing ranks #1, RUTG defends it at #124; the other way RUTG #46 into IU's #51.
Rushing game
IU
Clear advantage
IU rushing ranks #8, RUTG defends it at #125; the other way RUTG #115 into IU's #13.
Third down & red zone
IU
Clear advantage
IU third-down conversion ranks #13, RUTG defends it at #86; the other way RUTG #95 into IU's #14.
Big plays
=
Even
IU rush explosiveness ranks #31, RUTG defends it at #91; the other way RUTG #119 into IU's #92.
Pass protection & rush
IU
Clear advantage
IU sack rate ranks #71, RUTG defends it at #77; the other way RUTG #113 into IU's #15.
Ball security
IU
Clear advantage
IU turnovers / game ranks #3, RUTG defends it at #73; the other way RUTG #128 into IU's #123.
Form (last 5)
IU
Clear advantage
RUTG −2.2 per game over the last five, IU +33.4.
Market
IU
Clear advantage
Consensus has IU by 24.5; the model says IU by 33.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket IU by 24.5 · model IU by 33.9
Mkt IU 24.5
Model IU 33.9
← IU by 28tieRUTG by 28 →
3.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 58.1
Mkt 56.5
Model 58.1
24 pts6096 pts
4.8% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 58.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: IUModel agrees
Opened
IU -23.5
→
Market maker now
IU -24.25
▼ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
IU -24.5
in line
19 moves5 books5 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: IU -23.5 → IU -24
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still IU -23.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel agrees
Opened
54.5
→
Market maker now
56.5
▲ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
56.5
in line
19 moves5 books0 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: 55.5 → 56
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 55.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
