The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
86%North Dakota State BisonStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: North Dakota State Bison 62%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NDSU by 5.3market NDSU by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.5 pointsmarket 44.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Dakota State Bison at 86% to win, with the market at NDSU by 17.5.
NDSU has the advantage in passing: NDSU passing ranks #43, WYO defends it at #87; the other way WYO #116 into NDSU's #4.
NDSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #58, WYO defends it at #60; the other way WYO #122 into NDSU's #2.
Rest: NDSU has 7 more days since its last game (NDSU 14d, WYO 7d).
Form: NDSU has the better last five games by 31.6 points a game (NDSU +23.8, WYO -7.8).
Home field is with NDSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NDSU by 5.3 against a market NDSU by 17.5: 12.2 points of daylight in WYO's favour. The model's total is 39.5 against a line of 44.5: 5.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NDSU by 5.3 · market NDSU by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU passing ranks #43, WYO defends it at #87; the other way WYO #116 into NDSU's #4.
Rushing game
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU rushing ranks #71, WYO defends it at #111; the other way WYO #68 into NDSU's #4.
Third down & red zone
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #58, WYO defends it at #60; the other way WYO #122 into NDSU's #2.
Big plays
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU rush explosiveness ranks #36, WYO defends it at #45; the other way WYO #114 into NDSU's #16.
Pass protection & rush
NDSU
Slight advantage
NDSU sack rate ranks #66, WYO defends it at #83; the other way WYO #92 into NDSU's #51.
Ball security
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU turnovers / game ranks #28, WYO defends it at #128; the other way WYO #121 into NDSU's #8.
Form (last 5)
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU +23.8 per game over the last five, WYO −7.8.
Market
NDSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has NDSU by 17.5; the model says NDSU by 5.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NDSU by 17.5 · model NDSU by 5.3
Mkt NDSU 17.5
Model NDSU 5.3
← WYO by 28tieNDSU by 28 →
20.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 39.5
Mkt 44.5
Model 39.5
24 pts6096 pts
10.5% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 39.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: WYOModel disagrees
Opened
NDSU -20
→
Market maker now
NDSU -17
▼ 2 since open
→
Retail now
NDSU -17.25
in line
25 moves8 books2 led
Mon, Sep 28, 4:48 AM first sharp move: NDSU -20 → NDSU -19
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still NDSU -20 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel agrees
Opened
45.5
→
Market maker now
44
▼ 1.8 since open
→
Retail now
44.5
0.5 behind
18 moves8 books5 led
Thu, Oct 1, 10:11 PM first sharp move: 45.5 → 44.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 45.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
