The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
94%UAB BlazersStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: UAB Blazers 89%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UAB by 21.3market UAB by 30.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.1 pointsmarket 54.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UAB Blazers at 94% to win, with the market at UAB by 30.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: UAB has the better last five games by 19.6 points a game (UAB +0.6, SAM -19.0).
Home field is with UAB, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UAB by 21.3 against a market UAB by 30.5: 9.2 points of daylight in SAM's favour. The model's total is 49.1 against a line of 54.5: 5.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UAB by 21.3 · market UAB by 30.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
UAB
Clear advantage
UAB +0.6 per game over the last five, SAM −19.0.
Market
UAB
Clear advantage
Consensus has UAB by 30.5; the model says UAB by 21.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UAB by 30.5 · model UAB by 21.3
Mkt UAB 30.5
Model UAB 21.3
← SAM by 28tieUAB by 28 →
10.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 49.1
Mkt 54.5
Model 49.1
24 pts6096 pts
11.0% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 49.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: UABModel agrees
Opened
UAB -30.5
→
Market maker now
UAB -31
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
UAB -30.5
0.5 behind
6 moves8 books2 ledSteam Sat, Oct 3, 1:50 PM
Sat, Oct 3, 10:12 AM first sharp move: UAB -30.5 → UAB -30
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still UAB -30.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
50.5
→
Market maker now
54.5
▲ 2.8 since open
→
Retail now
54.5
in line
15 moves8 books3 led
Thu, Oct 1, 10:10 AM first sharp move: 51 → 52.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 51 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
