Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Arizona Wildcats
2-1
Model predicts
24 – 19
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Martin Stadium · 58° · Mostly sunny
Washington State Cougars
1-2
Spread ARIZ -10.5 (opened ARIZ -13.5)Total 48.5Moneyline ARIZ -425 · WSU +3337 books · best ARIZ -410 draftkings · WSU +350 hardrockbet
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
ARIZ -425
62%
model margin ARIZ by 5.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
WSU +10.5
52%
5.2 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 48.5
52%
model total 42.9
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has ARIZ winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, WSU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: ARIZ third-down conversion ranks #7, WSU defends it at #83; the other way WSU #130 into ARIZ's #80. The model lands on ARIZ by 5.3 against a market ARIZ by 10.5, so the spread lean is WSU by 5.2 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 42.9 against 48.5.

Who has the edge

Model: ARIZ by 5.3 · market ARIZ by 10.5
Passing game
Slight edge
ARIZ
ARIZ passing ranks #48, WSU defends it at #45; the other way WSU #125 into ARIZ's #62.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
ARIZ
ARIZ rushing ranks #42, WSU defends it at #117; the other way WSU #77 into ARIZ's #98.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
ARIZ
ARIZ third-down conversion ranks #7, WSU defends it at #83; the other way WSU #130 into ARIZ's #80.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ARIZ
WSU 0.0 per game over the last five, ARIZ +14.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
ARIZ
Consensus has ARIZ by 10.5; the model says ARIZ by 5.3.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARIZ by 10.5 · model ARIZ by 5.3
Mkt ARIZ 10.5
Model ARIZ 5.3
-28028

8.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 48.5 · model 42.9
Mkt 48.5
Model 42.9
246096

13.7% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 42.9 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: WSU · model agrees
Opened
ARIZ -13
Pinnacle now
ARIZ -10
Retail now
ARIZ -10.5+0.5 behind
Moves
17 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Mon 8:32 AM: ARIZ -10 → ARIZ -9, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still ARIZ -10.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model disagrees
Opened
49
Pinnacle now
48.5(+1)
Retail now
48.5
Moves
17 across 7 books · 8 led

First sharp move Mon 6:30 PM: 47.5 → 48.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 47.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.