Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Central Michigan Chippewas
2-1
Model predicts
5 – 38
Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium · 82° · Mostly sunny
Miami Hurricanes
3-0
Spread MIA -41.5 (opened MIA -42.5)Total 53.5Moneyline —7 books
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
MIA
97%
model margin MIA by 33.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CMU +41.5
53%
8.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 53.5
54%
model total 43.4 · best under 54.5 at betmgm
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has MIA winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CMU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: MIA third-down conversion ranks #18, CMU defends it at #114; the other way CMU #122 into MIA's #13. The model lands on MIA by 33.5 against a market MIA by 41.5, so the spread lean is CMU by 8.0 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 43.4 against 53.5.

Who has the edge

Model: MIA by 33.5 · market MIA by 41.5
Passing game
Clear edge
MIA
MIA passing ranks #4, CMU defends it at #29; the other way CMU #137 into MIA's #52.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
MIA
MIA rushing ranks #31, CMU defends it at #99; the other way CMU #30 into MIA's #44.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
MIA
MIA third-down conversion ranks #18, CMU defends it at #114; the other way CMU #122 into MIA's #13.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MIA
MIA +40.7 per game over the last five, CMU −4.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MIA
Consensus has MIA by 41.5; the model says MIA by 33.5.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIA by 41.5 · model MIA by 33.5
Mkt MIA 41.5
Model MIA 33.5
-28028

6.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 53.5 · model 43.4
Mkt 53.5
Model 43.4
246096

23.5% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 43.4 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: MIA · model disagrees
Opened
MIA -42
Pinnacle now
MIA -41.25(+1.3)
Retail now
MIA -41.5
Moves
18 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: MIA -39 → MIA -40.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still MIA -40.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model disagrees
Opened
54
Pinnacle now
53.5(+0.5)
Retail now
53.5
Moves
17 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Mon 4:20 AM: 52.5 → 53, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 53.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.