The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
68%North Dakota State BisonSolid✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NDSU by 8.0market NDSU by 26.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.3 pointsmarket 50.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Dakota State Bison at 68% to win, with the market at NDSU by 26.5.
NDSU has the advantage in passing: NDSU passing ranks #43, SAC defends it at #116; the other way SAC #124 into NDSU's #4.
NDSU has the advantage in big plays: NDSU pass explosiveness ranks #37, SAC defends it at #105; the other way SAC #136 into NDSU's #43.
Form: NDSU has the better last five games by 34.8 points a game (SAC -11.0, NDSU +23.8).
Home field is with SAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it NDSU by 8.0 against a market NDSU by 26.5: 18.5 points of daylight in SAC's favour. The model's total is 54.3 against a line of 50.5: 3.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NDSU by 8.0 · market NDSU by 26.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU passing ranks #43, SAC defends it at #116; the other way SAC #124 into NDSU's #4.
Rushing game
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU rushing ranks #71, SAC defends it at #38; the other way SAC #135 into NDSU's #4.
Third down & red zone
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #58, SAC defends it at #98; the other way SAC #127 into NDSU's #2.
Big plays
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU pass explosiveness ranks #37, SAC defends it at #105; the other way SAC #136 into NDSU's #43.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NDSU sack rate ranks #66, SAC defends it at #101; the other way SAC #34 into NDSU's #51.
Ball security
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU turnovers / game ranks #28, SAC defends it at #133; the other way SAC #133 into NDSU's #8.
Form (last 5)
NDSU
Clear advantage
SAC −11.0 per game over the last five, NDSU +23.8.
Market
NDSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has NDSU by 26.5; the model says NDSU by 8.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NDSU by 26.5 · model NDSU by 8.0
Mkt NDSU 26.5
Model NDSU 8.0
← NDSU by 28tieSAC by 28 →
15.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 54.3
Mkt 50.5
Model 54.3
24 pts6096 pts
9.4% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 54.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
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Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
