The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Indiana HoosiersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IU by 7.8market IU by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.1 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Indiana Hoosiers at 67% to win, with the market at IU by 7.5.
IU has the advantage in rushing: IU rushing ranks #26, MIA defends it at #16; the other way MIA #65 into IU's #3.
Form: IU has the better last five games by 17.0 points a game (IU +26.2, MIA +9.2).
Home field is with IU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it IU by 7.8 against a market IU by 7.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 46.1 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IU by 7.8 · market IU by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
MIA passing ranks #10, IU defends it at #43; the other way IU #4 into MIA's #18.
Rushing game
IU
Slight advantage
IU rushing ranks #26, MIA defends it at #16; the other way MIA #65 into IU's #3.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
IU points / scoring opportunity ranks #1, MIA defends it at #5; the other way MIA #24 into IU's #1.
Big plays
=
Even
IU rush explosiveness ranks #102, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into IU's #83.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #12, IU defends it at #6; the other way IU #63 into MIA's #22.
Ball security
IU
Slight advantage
IU turnovers / game ranks #3, MIA defends it at #35; the other way MIA #25 into IU's #13.
Form (last 5)
IU
Clear advantage
IU +26.2 per game over the last five, MIA +9.2.
Market
IU
Clear advantage
Consensus has IU by 7.5; the model says IU by 7.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket IU by 7.5 · model IU by 7.8
Mkt IU 7.5
Model IU 7.8
← MIA by 28tieIU by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 46.1
Mkt 46.5
Model 46.1
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
