The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Delaware Blue HensStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEL by 12.3market DEL by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
65.1 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Delaware Blue Hens at 76% to win, with the market at DEL by 4.5.
DEL has the advantage in passing: DEL passing ranks #50, UTEP defends it at #76; the other way UTEP #132 into DEL's #98.
Counterpoint: big plays favours UTEP. UTEP pass explosiveness ranks #17, DEL defends it at #61; the other way DEL #112 into UTEP's #21. The pick still lands on DEL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: DEL has the better last five games by 12.0 points a game (DEL -0.6, UTEP -12.6).
Home field is with DEL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DEL by 12.3 against a market DEL by 4.5: 7.8 points of daylight in DEL's favour. The model's total is 65.1 against a line of 55.5: 9.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEL by 12.3 · market DEL by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DEL
Slight advantage
DEL passing ranks #50, UTEP defends it at #76; the other way UTEP #132 into DEL's #98.
Rushing game
UTEP
Clear advantage
UTEP rushing ranks #105, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into UTEP's #21.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
UTEP points / scoring opportunity ranks #96, DEL defends it at #108; the other way DEL #89 into UTEP's #85.
Big plays
UTEP
Clear advantage
UTEP pass explosiveness ranks #17, DEL defends it at #61; the other way DEL #112 into UTEP's #21.
Pass protection & rush
DEL
Slight advantage
DEL sack rate ranks #58, UTEP defends it at #67; the other way UTEP #86 into DEL's #47.
Ball security
DEL
Clear advantage
DEL turnovers / game ranks #95, UTEP defends it at #107; the other way UTEP #132 into DEL's #44.
Form (last 5)
DEL
Clear advantage
DEL −0.6 per game over the last five, UTEP −12.6.
Market
DEL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DEL by 4.5; the model says DEL by 12.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket DEL by 4.5 · model DEL by 12.3
Mkt DEL 4.5
Model DEL 12.3
← UTEP by 28tieDEL by 28 →
13.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 65.1
Mkt 55.5
Model 65.1
24 pts6096 pts
20.2% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 65.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
