The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
97%Tulane Green WaveStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TULN by 33.2market TULN by 30.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.2 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tulane Green Wave at 97% to win, with the market at TULN by 30.5.
TULN has the advantage in rushing: TULN rushing ranks #70, CLT defends it at #122; the other way CLT #135 into TULN's #62.
TULN has the advantage in passing: TULN passing ranks #22, CLT defends it at #96; the other way CLT #117 into TULN's #67.
Form: TULN has the better last five games by 36.8 points a game (TULN +8.8, CLT -28.0).
Home field is with TULN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TULN by 33.2 against a market TULN by 30.5: 2.7 points of daylight in TULN's favour. The model's total is 50.2 against a line of 51.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TULN by 33.2 · market TULN by 30.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN passing ranks #22, CLT defends it at #96; the other way CLT #117 into TULN's #67.
Rushing game
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN rushing ranks #70, CLT defends it at #122; the other way CLT #135 into TULN's #62.
Third down & red zone
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN points / scoring opportunity ranks #53, CLT defends it at #114; the other way CLT #130 into TULN's #65.
Big plays
CLT
Slight advantage
CLT pass explosiveness ranks #10, TULN defends it at #12; the other way TULN #75 into CLT's #4.
Pass protection & rush
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN sack rate ranks #8, CLT defends it at #127; the other way CLT #103 into TULN's #29.
Ball security
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN turnovers / game ranks #62, CLT defends it at #68; the other way CLT #128 into TULN's #16.
Form (last 5)
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN +8.8 per game over the last five, CLT −28.0.
Market
TULN
Clear advantage
Consensus has TULN by 30.5; the model says TULN by 33.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TULN by 30.5 · model TULN by 33.2
Mkt TULN 30.5
Model TULN 33.2
← CLT by 28tieTULN by 28 →
3.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 50.2
Mkt 51.5
Model 50.2
24 pts6096 pts
3.6% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 50.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
