The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Jacksonville State GamecocksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JVST by 3.9market FIU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
64.6 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 59% to win, with the market at FIU by 2.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: FIU has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (FIU +8.4, JVST +1.2).
Home field is with FIU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it JVST by 3.9 against a market FIU by 2.5: 6.4 points of daylight in JVST's favour. The model's total is 64.6 against a line of 55.5: 9.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JVST by 3.9 · market FIU by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor FIU, but the model still picks JVST. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
FIU passing ranks #84, JVST defends it at #61; the other way JVST #85 into FIU's #56.
Rushing game
=
Even
JVST rushing ranks #32, FIU defends it at #63; the other way FIU #55 into JVST's #78.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
JVST third-down conversion ranks #82, FIU defends it at #69; the other way FIU #104 into JVST's #46.
Big plays
=
Even
JVST pass explosiveness ranks #79, FIU defends it at #98; the other way FIU #128 into JVST's #72.
Pass protection & rush
FIU
Slight advantage
FIU sack rate ranks #64, JVST defends it at #91; the other way JVST #89 into FIU's #76.
Ball security
JVST
Clear advantage
JVST turnovers / game ranks #23, FIU defends it at #30; the other way FIU #109 into JVST's #25.
Form (last 5)
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU +8.4 per game over the last five, JVST +1.2.
Market
FIU
Slight advantage
Consensus has FIU by 2.5; the model says JVST by 3.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket FIU by 2.5 · model JVST by 3.9
Mkt FIU 2.5
Model JVST 3.9
← JVST by 28tieFIU by 28 →
10.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 64.6
Mkt 55.5
Model 64.6
24 pts6096 pts
18.0% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 64.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
