The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Washington State CougarsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSU by 10.7market WSU by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.5 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington State Cougars at 73% to win, with the market at WSU by 10.
WSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #48, LT defends it at #23; the other way LT #108 into WSU's #27.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours LT. LT turnovers / game ranks #74, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into LT's #9. The pick still lands on WSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: WSU has 7 more days since its last game (WSU 14d, LT 7d).
Form: WSU has the better last five games by 10.8 points a game (WSU +11.0, LT +0.2).
Home field is with WSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSU by 10.7 against a market WSU by 10: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 38.5 against a line of 43.5: 5.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSU by 10.7 · market WSU by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
WSU passing ranks #105, LT defends it at #30; the other way LT #91 into WSU's #15.
Rushing game
LT
Slight advantage
LT rushing ranks #50, WSU defends it at #53; the other way WSU #88 into LT's #41.
Third down & red zone
WSU
Slight advantage
WSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #48, LT defends it at #23; the other way LT #108 into WSU's #27.
Big plays
=
Even
WSU rush explosiveness ranks #109, LT defends it at #112; the other way LT #33 into WSU's #11.
Pass protection & rush
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU sack rate ranks #50, LT defends it at #118; the other way LT #107 into WSU's #17.
Ball security
LT
Clear advantage
LT turnovers / game ranks #74, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into LT's #9.
Form (last 5)
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU +11.0 per game over the last five, LT +0.2.
Market
WSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has WSU by 10; the model says WSU by 10.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WSU by 10 · model WSU by 10.7
Mkt WSU 10
Model WSU 10.7
← LT by 28tieWSU by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 10 and 10.7, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 10. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 38.5
Mkt 43.5
Model 38.5
24 pts6096 pts
8.9% of FBS games finish between 43.5 and 38.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
