The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Delaware Blue HensLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEL by 3.3market LT by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
61.4 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Delaware Blue Hens at 58% to win, with the market at LT by 5.5.
Counterpoint: rushing favours LT. LT rushing ranks #50, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into LT's #41. The pick still lands on DEL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DEL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DEL by 3.3 against a market LT by 5.5: 8.8 points of daylight in DEL's favour. The model's total is 61.4 against a line of 56.5: 4.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEL by 3.3 · market LT by 5.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor LT, but the model still picks DEL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LT
Slight advantage
LT passing ranks #91, DEL defends it at #98; the other way DEL #50 into LT's #30.
Rushing game
LT
Clear advantage
LT rushing ranks #50, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into LT's #41.
Third down & red zone
LT
Slight advantage
LT points / scoring opportunity ranks #108, DEL defends it at #108; the other way DEL #89 into LT's #23.
Big plays
LT
Slight advantage
LT rush explosiveness ranks #33, DEL defends it at #135; the other way DEL #76 into LT's #112.
Pass protection & rush
DEL
Clear advantage
DEL sack rate ranks #58, LT defends it at #118; the other way LT #107 into DEL's #47.
Ball security
LT
Slight advantage
LT turnovers / game ranks #74, DEL defends it at #44; the other way DEL #95 into LT's #9.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
DEL −0.6 per game over the last five, LT +0.2.
Market
LT
Clear advantage
Consensus has LT by 5.5; the model says DEL by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LT by 5.5 · model DEL by 3.3
Mkt LT 5.5
Model DEL 3.3
← LT by 28tieDEL by 28 →
17.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 61.4
Mkt 56.5
Model 61.4
24 pts6096 pts
10.8% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 61.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
