The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
92%Miami HurricanesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 24.0market MIA by 28.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.5 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Hurricanes at 92% to win, with the market at MIA by 28.5.
MIA has the advantage in passing: MIA passing ranks #10, SYR defends it at #126; the other way SYR #128 into MIA's #18.
MIA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIA third-down conversion ranks #19, SYR defends it at #86; the other way SYR #107 into MIA's #11.
Form: MIA has the better last five games by 40.2 points a game (MIA +9.2, SYR -31.0).
Home field is with MIA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 24.0 against a market MIA by 28.5: 4.5 points of daylight in SYR's favour. The model's total is 51.5 against a line of 46.5: 5.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 24.0 · market MIA by 28.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA passing ranks #10, SYR defends it at #126; the other way SYR #128 into MIA's #18.
Rushing game
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA rushing ranks #65, SYR defends it at #66; the other way SYR #122 into MIA's #16.
Third down & red zone
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA third-down conversion ranks #19, SYR defends it at #86; the other way SYR #107 into MIA's #11.
Big plays
=
Even
SYR pass explosiveness ranks #51, MIA defends it at #30; the other way MIA #87 into SYR's #59.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #12, SYR defends it at #114; the other way SYR #112 into MIA's #22.
Ball security
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA turnovers / game ranks #25, SYR defends it at #128; the other way SYR #129 into MIA's #35.
Form (last 5)
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA +9.2 per game over the last five, SYR −31.0.
Market
MIA
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIA by 28.5; the model says MIA by 24.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIA by 28.5 · model MIA by 24.0
Mkt MIA 28.5
Model MIA 24.0
← SYR by 28tieMIA by 28 →
5.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 51.5
Mkt 46.5
Model 51.5
24 pts6096 pts
12.7% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 51.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
