The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Ohio BobcatsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OHIO by 12.2market OHIO by 11.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.0 pointsmarket 60.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio Bobcats at 76% to win, with the market at OHIO by 11.5.
OHIO has the advantage in rushing: OHIO rushing ranks #24, EMU defends it at #127; the other way EMU #61 into OHIO's #69.
OHIO has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, EMU defends it at #129; the other way EMU #53 into OHIO's #21.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours EMU. EMU sack rate ranks #5, OHIO defends it at #78; the other way OHIO #105 into EMU's #115. The pick still lands on OHIO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: OHIO has the better last five games by 10.0 points a game (EMU -2.0, OHIO +8.0).
Home field is with EMU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it OHIO by 12.2 against a market OHIO by 11.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 62.0 against a line of 60.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OHIO by 12.2 · market OHIO by 11.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO passing ranks #61, EMU defends it at #112; the other way EMU #57 into OHIO's #47.
Rushing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO rushing ranks #24, EMU defends it at #127; the other way EMU #61 into OHIO's #69.
Third down & red zone
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, EMU defends it at #129; the other way EMU #53 into OHIO's #21.
Big plays
=
Even
OHIO rush explosiveness ranks #15, EMU defends it at #116; the other way EMU #67 into OHIO's #93.
Pass protection & rush
EMU
Clear advantage
EMU sack rate ranks #5, OHIO defends it at #78; the other way OHIO #105 into EMU's #115.
Ball security
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO turnovers / game ranks #92, EMU defends it at #124; the other way EMU #58 into OHIO's #63.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Clear advantage
EMU −2.0 per game over the last five, OHIO +8.0.
Market
OHIO
Clear advantage
Consensus has OHIO by 11.5; the model says OHIO by 12.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OHIO by 11.5 · model OHIO by 12.2
Mkt OHIO 11.5
Model OHIO 12.2
← OHIO by 28tieEMU by 28 →
0.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 60.5 · model 62.0
Mkt 60.5
Model 62.0
24 pts6096 pts
2.0% of FBS games finish between 60.5 and 62.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
