The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
82%Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GT by 15.8market GT by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.9 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at 82% to win, with the market at GT by 17.5.
GT has the advantage in passing: GT passing ranks #12, SYR defends it at #126; the other way SYR #128 into GT's #104.
GT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: GT points / scoring opportunity ranks #77, SYR defends it at #113; the other way SYR #122 into GT's #58.
Form: GT has the better last five games by 24.0 points a game (GT -7.0, SYR -31.0).
Home field is with GT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GT by 15.8 against a market GT by 17.5: 1.7 points of daylight in SYR's favour. The model's total is 55.9 against a line of 52.5: 3.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GT by 15.8 · market GT by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
GT
Clear advantage
GT passing ranks #12, SYR defends it at #126; the other way SYR #128 into GT's #104.
Rushing game
GT
Clear advantage
GT rushing ranks #47, SYR defends it at #66; the other way SYR #122 into GT's #73.
Third down & red zone
GT
Clear advantage
GT points / scoring opportunity ranks #77, SYR defends it at #113; the other way SYR #122 into GT's #58.
Big plays
=
Even
GT rush explosiveness ranks #97, SYR defends it at #111; the other way SYR #114 into GT's #79.
Pass protection & rush
GT
Clear advantage
GT sack rate ranks #7, SYR defends it at #114; the other way SYR #112 into GT's #65.
Ball security
GT
Clear advantage
GT turnovers / game ranks #52, SYR defends it at #128; the other way SYR #129 into GT's #130.
Form (last 5)
GT
Clear advantage
GT −7.0 per game over the last five, SYR −31.0.
Market
GT
Clear advantage
Consensus has GT by 17.5; the model says GT by 15.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket GT by 17.5 · model GT by 15.8
Mkt GT 17.5
Model GT 15.8
← SYR by 28tieGT by 28 →
3.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 55.9
Mkt 52.5
Model 55.9
24 pts6096 pts
6.9% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 55.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
