The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Florida International PanthersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
FIU by 5.1market KENN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.5 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Florida International Panthers at 62% to win, with the market at KENN by 3.
FIU has the advantage in rushing: FIU rushing ranks #55, KENN defends it at #95; the other way KENN #62 into FIU's #63.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours KENN. KENN sack rate ranks #61, FIU defends it at #76; the other way FIU #64 into KENN's #20. The pick still lands on FIU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: KENN has 5 more days since its last game (FIU 7d, KENN 12d).
Form: FIU has the better last five games by 13.8 points a game (FIU +8.4, KENN -5.4).
Home field is with FIU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it FIU by 5.1 against a market KENN by 3: 8.1 points of daylight in FIU's favour. The model's total is 42.5 against a line of 48.5: 6.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model FIU by 5.1 · market KENN by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
KENN
Slight advantage
KENN passing ranks #41, FIU defends it at #56; the other way FIU #84 into KENN's #49.
Rushing game
FIU
Slight advantage
FIU rushing ranks #55, KENN defends it at #95; the other way KENN #62 into FIU's #63.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
FIU points / scoring opportunity ranks #35, KENN defends it at #60; the other way KENN #125 into FIU's #67.
Big plays
KENN
Slight advantage
KENN pass explosiveness ranks #19, FIU defends it at #98; the other way FIU #128 into KENN's #20.
Pass protection & rush
KENN
Slight advantage
KENN sack rate ranks #61, FIU defends it at #76; the other way FIU #64 into KENN's #20.
Ball security
FIU
Slight advantage
FIU turnovers / game ranks #109, KENN defends it at #97; the other way KENN #71 into FIU's #30.
Form (last 5)
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU +8.4 per game over the last five, KENN −5.4.
Market
KENN
Slight advantage
Consensus has KENN by 3; the model says FIU by 5.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket KENN by 3 · model FIU by 5.1
Mkt KENN 3
Model FIU 5.1
← KENN by 28tieFIU by 28 →
13.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 42.5
Mkt 48.5
Model 42.5
24 pts6096 pts
13.7% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 42.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
