The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
84%Ohio BobcatsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OHIO by 17.4market OHIO by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
33.7 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio Bobcats at 84% to win, with the market at OHIO by 10.5.
OHIO has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, NIU defends it at #110; the other way NIU #128 into OHIO's #21.
OHIO has the advantage in passing: OHIO passing ranks #61, NIU defends it at #62; the other way NIU #135 into OHIO's #47.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NIU. NIU pass explosiveness ranks #32, OHIO defends it at #87; the other way OHIO #118 into NIU's #54. The pick still lands on OHIO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: OHIO has 7 more days since its last game (OHIO 14d, NIU 7d).
Form: OHIO has the better last five games by 8.6 points a game (OHIO +8.0, NIU -0.6).
Home field is with OHIO, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OHIO by 17.4 against a market OHIO by 10.5: 6.9 points of daylight in OHIO's favour. The model's total is 33.7 against a line of 41.5: 7.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OHIO by 17.4 · market OHIO by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO passing ranks #61, NIU defends it at #62; the other way NIU #135 into OHIO's #47.
Rushing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO rushing ranks #24, NIU defends it at #109; the other way NIU #73 into OHIO's #69.
Third down & red zone
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, NIU defends it at #110; the other way NIU #128 into OHIO's #21.
Big plays
NIU
Clear advantage
NIU pass explosiveness ranks #32, OHIO defends it at #87; the other way OHIO #118 into NIU's #54.
Pass protection & rush
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO sack rate ranks #105, NIU defends it at #122; the other way NIU #93 into OHIO's #78.
Ball security
NIU
Slight advantage
NIU turnovers / game ranks #16, OHIO defends it at #63; the other way OHIO #92 into NIU's #93.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO +8.0 per game over the last five, NIU −0.6.
Market
OHIO
Clear advantage
Consensus has OHIO by 10.5; the model says OHIO by 17.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OHIO by 10.5 · model OHIO by 17.4
Mkt OHIO 10.5
Model OHIO 17.4
← NIU by 28tieOHIO by 28 →
9.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 33.7
Mkt 41.5
Model 33.7
24 pts6096 pts
14.3% of FBS games finish between 41.5 and 33.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
