The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Delaware Blue HensLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEL by 2.0market DEL by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
61.0 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Delaware Blue Hens at 55% to win, with the market at DEL by 3.
Counterpoint: rushing favours JVST. JVST rushing ranks #32, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into JVST's #78. The pick still lands on DEL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DEL has 6 more days since its last game (JVST 6d, DEL 12d).
Home field is with JVST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DEL by 2.0 against a market DEL by 3: 1.0 points of daylight in JVST's favour. The model's total is 61.0 against a line of 55.5: 5.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEL by 2.0 · market DEL by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor JVST, but the model still picks DEL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
JVST passing ranks #85, DEL defends it at #98; the other way DEL #50 into JVST's #61.
Rushing game
JVST
Clear advantage
JVST rushing ranks #32, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into JVST's #78.
Third down & red zone
JVST
Slight advantage
JVST points / scoring opportunity ranks #64, DEL defends it at #108; the other way DEL #89 into JVST's #80.
Big plays
JVST
Slight advantage
JVST rush explosiveness ranks #13, DEL defends it at #135; the other way DEL #76 into JVST's #108.
Pass protection & rush
DEL
Clear advantage
DEL sack rate ranks #58, JVST defends it at #91; the other way JVST #89 into DEL's #47.
Ball security
JVST
Clear advantage
JVST turnovers / game ranks #23, DEL defends it at #44; the other way DEL #95 into JVST's #25.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
JVST +1.2 per game over the last five, DEL −0.6.
Market
DEL
Slight advantage
Consensus has DEL by 3; the model says DEL by 2.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket DEL by 3 · model DEL by 2.0
Mkt DEL 3
Model DEL 2.0
← DEL by 28tieJVST by 28 →
1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 61.0
Mkt 55.5
Model 61.0
24 pts6096 pts
10.3% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 61.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
