The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GT by 14.3market GT by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.1 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at 80% to win, with the market at GT by 14.
GT has the advantage in passing: GT passing ranks #12, VT defends it at #130; the other way VT #116 into GT's #104.
GT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: GT third-down conversion ranks #22, VT defends it at #123; the other way VT #73 into GT's #79.
Counterpoint: big plays favours VT. VT pass explosiveness ranks #21, GT defends it at #46; the other way GT #98 into VT's #56. The pick still lands on GT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: GT has 7 more days since its last game (GT 14d, VT 7d).
Home field is with GT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GT by 14.3 against a market GT by 14: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 57.1 against a line of 55.5: 1.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GT by 14.3 · market GT by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
GT
Clear advantage
GT passing ranks #12, VT defends it at #130; the other way VT #116 into GT's #104.
Rushing game
=
Even
GT rushing ranks #47, VT defends it at #112; the other way VT #31 into GT's #73.
Third down & red zone
GT
Clear advantage
GT third-down conversion ranks #22, VT defends it at #123; the other way VT #73 into GT's #79.
Big plays
VT
Slight advantage
VT pass explosiveness ranks #21, GT defends it at #46; the other way GT #98 into VT's #56.
Pass protection & rush
GT
Clear advantage
GT sack rate ranks #7, VT defends it at #110; the other way VT #110 into GT's #65.
Ball security
=
Even
GT turnovers / game ranks #52, VT defends it at #135; the other way VT #70 into GT's #130.
Form (last 5)
GT
Slight advantage
GT −7.0 per game over the last five, VT −12.2.
Market
GT
Clear advantage
Consensus has GT by 14; the model says GT by 14.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket GT by 14 · model GT by 14.3
Mkt GT 14
Model GT 14.3
← VT by 28tieGT by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 57.1
Mkt 55.5
Model 57.1
24 pts6096 pts
3.6% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 57.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
