The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
68%Washington HuskiesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WASH by 8.0market WASH by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
67.8 pointsmarket 62.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Huskies at 68% to win, with the market at WASH by 9.5.
WASH has the advantage in rushing: WASH rushing ranks #9, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into WASH's #9.
WASH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #15, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #101 into WASH's #15.
Rest: RUTG has 7 more days since its last game (WASH 6d, RUTG 13d).
Form: WASH has the better last five games by 24.8 points a game (WASH +16.6, RUTG -8.2).
Home field is with WASH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WASH by 8.0 against a market WASH by 9.5: 1.5 points of daylight in RUTG's favour. The model's total is 67.8 against a line of 62.5: 5.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WASH by 8.0 · market WASH by 9.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH passing ranks #37, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into WASH's #50.
Rushing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rushing ranks #9, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into WASH's #9.
Third down & red zone
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #15, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #101 into WASH's #15.
Big plays
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rush explosiveness ranks #35, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into WASH's #7.
Pass protection & rush
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH sack rate ranks #114, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into WASH's #97.
Ball security
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH turnovers / game ranks #44, RUTG defends it at #112; the other way RUTG #17 into WASH's #45.
Form (last 5)
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH +16.6 per game over the last five, RUTG −8.2.
Market
WASH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WASH by 9.5; the model says WASH by 8.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WASH by 9.5 · model WASH by 8.0
Mkt WASH 9.5
Model WASH 8.0
← RUTG by 28tieWASH by 28 →
2.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 62.5 · model 67.8
Mkt 62.5
Model 67.8
24 pts6096 pts
8.4% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 67.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
