The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Central Michigan ChippewasLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CMU by 2.6market CMU by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.7 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Central Michigan Chippewas at 56% to win, with the market at CMU by 7.
CMU has the advantage in passing: CMU passing ranks #25, AKR defends it at #68; the other way AKR #100 into CMU's #39.
CMU has the advantage in big plays: CMU rush explosiveness ranks #79, AKR defends it at #57; the other way AKR #125 into CMU's #29.
Form: AKR has the better last five games by 8.2 points a game (AKR +4.8, CMU -3.4).
Home field is with AKR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CMU by 2.6 against a market CMU by 7: 4.4 points of daylight in AKR's favour. The model's total is 47.7 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CMU by 2.6 · market CMU by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CMU
Clear advantage
CMU passing ranks #25, AKR defends it at #68; the other way AKR #100 into CMU's #39.
Rushing game
CMU
Slight advantage
CMU rushing ranks #82, AKR defends it at #25; the other way AKR #116 into CMU's #12.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
CMU points / scoring opportunity ranks #80, AKR defends it at #70; the other way AKR #111 into CMU's #26.
Big plays
CMU
Clear advantage
CMU rush explosiveness ranks #79, AKR defends it at #57; the other way AKR #125 into CMU's #29.
Pass protection & rush
AKR
Slight advantage
AKR sack rate ranks #109, CMU defends it at #85; the other way CMU #120 into AKR's #62.
Ball security
=
Even
CMU turnovers / game ranks #64, AKR defends it at #26; the other way AKR #86 into CMU's #31.
Form (last 5)
AKR
Clear advantage
AKR +4.8 per game over the last five, CMU −3.4.
Market
CMU
Clear advantage
Consensus has CMU by 7; the model says CMU by 2.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CMU by 7 · model CMU by 2.6
Mkt CMU 7
Model CMU 2.6
← CMU by 28tieAKR by 28 →
8.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 47.7
Mkt 47.5
Model 47.7
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
