The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Washington HuskiesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WASH by 4.9market WASH by 21
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.6 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Huskies at 61% to win, with the market at WASH by 21.
WASH has the advantage in rushing: WASH rushing ranks #9, WSU defends it at #53; the other way WSU #88 into WASH's #9.
WASH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WASH third-down conversion ranks #9, WSU defends it at #32; the other way WSU #87 into WASH's #56.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours WSU. WSU sack rate ranks #50, WASH defends it at #97; the other way WASH #114 into WSU's #17. The pick still lands on WASH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: WASH has 7 more days since its last game (WSU 7d, WASH 14d).
Home field is with WSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WASH by 4.9 against a market WASH by 21: 16.1 points of daylight in WSU's favour. The model's total is 62.6 against a line of 51.5: 11.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WASH by 4.9 · market WASH by 21
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH passing ranks #37, WSU defends it at #15; the other way WSU #105 into WASH's #50.
Rushing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rushing ranks #9, WSU defends it at #53; the other way WSU #88 into WASH's #9.
Third down & red zone
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH third-down conversion ranks #9, WSU defends it at #32; the other way WSU #87 into WASH's #56.
Big plays
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH rush explosiveness ranks #35, WSU defends it at #11; the other way WSU #109 into WASH's #7.
Pass protection & rush
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU sack rate ranks #50, WASH defends it at #97; the other way WASH #114 into WSU's #17.
Ball security
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH turnovers / game ranks #44, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into WASH's #45.
Form (last 5)
WASH
Slight advantage
WSU +11.0 per game over the last five, WASH +16.6.
Market
WASH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WASH by 21; the model says WASH by 4.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WASH by 21 · model WASH by 4.9
Mkt WASH 21
Model WASH 4.9
← WASH by 28tieWSU by 28 →
17.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 21, a number 3.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 62.6
Mkt 51.5
Model 62.6
24 pts6096 pts
24.3% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 62.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
