The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Ohio BobcatsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OHIO by 12.4market OHIO by 30.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.5 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio Bobcats at 76% to win, with the market at OHIO by 30.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Rest: GWEB has 7 more days since its last game (OHIO 7d, GWEB 14d).
Form: OHIO has the better last five games by 40.0 points a game (OHIO +8.0, GWEB -32.0).
Home field is with OHIO, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OHIO by 12.4 against a market OHIO by 30.5: 18.1 points of daylight in GWEB's favour. The model's total is 48.5 against a line of 55.5: 7.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OHIO by 12.4 · market OHIO by 30.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO +8.0 per game over the last five, GWEB −32.0.
Market
OHIO
Clear advantage
Consensus has OHIO by 30.5; the model says OHIO by 12.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OHIO by 30.5 · model OHIO by 12.4
Mkt OHIO 30.5
Model OHIO 12.4
← GWEB by 28tieOHIO by 28 →
23.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 48.5
Mkt 55.5
Model 48.5
24 pts6096 pts
16.7% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 48.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
