The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
87%Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GT by 19.1market GT by 24.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.9 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at 87% to win, with the market at GT by 24.5.
GT has the advantage in rushing: GT rushing ranks #47, TEM defends it at #113; the other way TEM #71 into GT's #73.
GT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: GT third-down conversion ranks #22, TEM defends it at #72; the other way TEM #91 into GT's #79.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours TEM. TEM turnovers / game ranks #2, GT defends it at #130; the other way GT #52 into TEM's #72. The pick still lands on GT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: GT has the better last five games by 9.4 points a game (GT -7.0, TEM -16.4).
Home field is with GT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GT by 19.1 against a market GT by 24.5: 5.4 points of daylight in TEM's favour. The model's total is 53.9 against a line of 52.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GT by 19.1 · market GT by 24.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
GT
Slight advantage
GT passing ranks #12, TEM defends it at #121; the other way TEM #24 into GT's #104.
Rushing game
GT
Clear advantage
GT rushing ranks #47, TEM defends it at #113; the other way TEM #71 into GT's #73.
Third down & red zone
GT
Slight advantage
GT third-down conversion ranks #22, TEM defends it at #72; the other way TEM #91 into GT's #79.
Big plays
=
Even
GT pass explosiveness ranks #98, TEM defends it at #113; the other way TEM #86 into GT's #46.
Pass protection & rush
GT
Clear advantage
GT sack rate ranks #7, TEM defends it at #102; the other way TEM #52 into GT's #65.
Ball security
TEM
Clear advantage
TEM turnovers / game ranks #2, GT defends it at #130; the other way GT #52 into TEM's #72.
Form (last 5)
GT
Clear advantage
GT −7.0 per game over the last five, TEM −16.4.
Market
GT
Clear advantage
Consensus has GT by 24.5; the model says GT by 19.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket GT by 24.5 · model GT by 19.1
Mkt GT 24.5
Model GT 19.1
← TEM by 28tieGT by 28 →
6.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 53.9
Mkt 52.5
Model 53.9
24 pts6096 pts
1.3% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 53.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
