The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%Boston College EaglesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BC by 7.1market BC by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.5 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Boston College Eagles at 66% to win, with the market at BC by 14.
Counterpoint: big plays favours STAN. STAN pass explosiveness ranks #65, BC defends it at #126; the other way BC #123 into STAN's #83. The pick still lands on BC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with STAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BC by 7.1 against a market BC by 14: 6.9 points of daylight in STAN's favour. The model's total is 59.5 against a line of 44.5: 15.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BC by 7.1 · market BC by 14
ⓘMost of these areas favor STAN, but the model still picks BC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
BC passing ranks #62, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into BC's #124.
Rushing game
STAN
Slight advantage
STAN rushing ranks #124, BC defends it at #77; the other way BC #95 into STAN's #18.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BC third-down conversion ranks #77, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into BC's #92.
Big plays
STAN
Clear advantage
STAN pass explosiveness ranks #65, BC defends it at #126; the other way BC #123 into STAN's #83.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
STAN sack rate ranks #127, BC defends it at #128; the other way BC #113 into STAN's #105.
Ball security
STAN
Slight advantage
STAN turnovers / game ranks #90, BC defends it at #99; the other way BC #118 into STAN's #94.
Form (last 5)
BC
Slight advantage
STAN −12.6 per game over the last five, BC −8.2.
Market
BC
Clear advantage
Consensus has BC by 14; the model says BC by 7.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BC by 14 · model BC by 7.1
Mkt BC 14
Model BC 7.1
← BC by 28tieSTAN by 28 →
5.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 59.5
Mkt 44.5
Model 59.5
24 pts6096 pts
36.0% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 59.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
