The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%UAB BlazersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UAB by 14.6market UAB by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.8 pointsmarket 58.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UAB Blazers at 80% to win, with the market at UAB by 12.5.
UAB has the advantage in big plays: UAB rush explosiveness ranks #16, AKR defends it at #57; the other way AKR #125 into UAB's #45.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours AKR. AKR turnovers / game ranks #86, UAB defends it at #123; the other way UAB #119 into AKR's #26. The pick still lands on UAB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: AKR has the better last five games by 20.4 points a game (UAB -15.6, AKR +4.8).
Home field is with UAB, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UAB by 14.6 against a market UAB by 12.5: 2.1 points of daylight in UAB's favour. The model's total is 62.8 against a line of 58.5: 4.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UAB by 14.6 · market UAB by 12.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor AKR, but the model still picks UAB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
AKR
Clear advantage
AKR passing ranks #100, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #103 into AKR's #68.
Rushing game
AKR
Slight advantage
AKR rushing ranks #116, UAB defends it at #126; the other way UAB #52 into AKR's #25.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
AKR points / scoring opportunity ranks #111, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #75 into AKR's #70.
Big plays
UAB
Slight advantage
UAB rush explosiveness ranks #16, AKR defends it at #57; the other way AKR #125 into UAB's #45.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
UAB sack rate ranks #94, AKR defends it at #62; the other way AKR #109 into UAB's #72.
Ball security
AKR
Clear advantage
AKR turnovers / game ranks #86, UAB defends it at #123; the other way UAB #119 into AKR's #26.
Form (last 5)
AKR
Clear advantage
UAB −15.6 per game over the last five, AKR +4.8.
Market
UAB
Clear advantage
Consensus has UAB by 12.5; the model says UAB by 14.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UAB by 12.5 · model UAB by 14.6
Mkt UAB 12.5
Model UAB 14.6
← AKR by 28tieUAB by 28 →
3.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 62.8
Mkt 58.5
Model 62.8
24 pts6096 pts
8.6% of FBS games finish between 58.5 and 62.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
