The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%UConn HuskiesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CONN by 0.3market CONN by 8.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.3 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UConn Huskies at 51% to win, with the market at CONN by 8.5.
CONN has the advantage in big plays: CONN rush explosiveness ranks #34, DEL defends it at #135; the other way DEL #76 into CONN's #66.
CONN has the advantage in rushing: CONN rushing ranks #23, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into CONN's #124.
Home field is with DEL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CONN by 0.3 against a market CONN by 8.5: 8.2 points of daylight in DEL's favour. The model's total is 51.3 against a line of 52.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CONN by 0.3 · market CONN by 8.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN passing ranks #5, DEL defends it at #98; the other way DEL #50 into CONN's #72.
Rushing game
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN rushing ranks #23, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into CONN's #124.
Third down & red zone
CONN
Slight advantage
CONN points / scoring opportunity ranks #14, DEL defends it at #108; the other way DEL #89 into CONN's #82.
Big plays
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN rush explosiveness ranks #34, DEL defends it at #135; the other way DEL #76 into CONN's #66.
Pass protection & rush
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN sack rate ranks #11, DEL defends it at #47; the other way DEL #58 into CONN's #9.
Ball security
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN turnovers / game ranks #1, DEL defends it at #44; the other way DEL #95 into CONN's #65.
Form (last 5)
CONN
Slight advantage
DEL −0.6 per game over the last five, CONN +2.0.
Market
CONN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CONN by 8.5; the model says CONN by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CONN by 8.5 · model CONN by 0.3
Mkt CONN 8.5
Model CONN 0.3
← CONN by 28tieDEL by 28 →
15.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 51.3
Mkt 52.5
Model 51.3
24 pts6096 pts
2.5% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 51.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
