The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Louisiana Tech BulldogsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LT by 1.6market LT by 14.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.1 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at 54% to win, with the market at LT by 14.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: LT has the better last five games by 35.2 points a game (LT +0.2, SELA -35.0).
Home field is with LT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LT by 1.6 against a market LT by 14.5: 12.9 points of daylight in SELA's favour. The model's total is 46.1 against a line of 50.5: 4.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LT by 1.6 · market LT by 14.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
LT
Clear advantage
LT +0.2 per game over the last five, SELA −35.0.
Market
LT
Clear advantage
Consensus has LT by 14.5; the model says LT by 1.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LT by 14.5 · model LT by 1.6
Mkt LT 14.5
Model LT 1.6
← SELA by 28tieLT by 28 →
25.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 46.1
Mkt 50.5
Model 46.1
24 pts6096 pts
9.1% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 46.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
