The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Wyoming CowboysLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WYO by 0.3market WYO by 8.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.6 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Wyoming Cowboys at 51% to win, with the market at WYO by 8.5.
WYO has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WYO points / scoring opportunity ranks #126, AKR defends it at #70; the other way AKR #111 into WYO's #11.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours AKR. AKR turnovers / game ranks #86, WYO defends it at #73; the other way WYO #101 into AKR's #26. The pick still lands on WYO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: AKR has the better last five games by 12.0 points a game (AKR +4.8, WYO -7.2).
Home field is with AKR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WYO by 0.3 against a market WYO by 8.5: 8.2 points of daylight in AKR's favour. The model's total is 43.6 against a line of 49.5: 5.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WYO by 0.3 · market WYO by 8.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor AKR, but the model still picks WYO. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
WYO passing ranks #123, AKR defends it at #68; the other way AKR #100 into WYO's #36.
Rushing game
AKR
Slight advantage
AKR rushing ranks #116, WYO defends it at #64; the other way WYO #104 into AKR's #25.
Third down & red zone
WYO
Slight advantage
WYO points / scoring opportunity ranks #126, AKR defends it at #70; the other way AKR #111 into WYO's #11.
Big plays
=
Even
AKR pass explosiveness ranks #34, WYO defends it at #91; the other way WYO #131 into AKR's #120.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
WYO sack rate ranks #26, AKR defends it at #62; the other way AKR #109 into WYO's #124.
Ball security
AKR
Clear advantage
AKR turnovers / game ranks #86, WYO defends it at #73; the other way WYO #101 into AKR's #26.
Form (last 5)
AKR
Clear advantage
AKR +4.8 per game over the last five, WYO −7.2.
Market
WYO
Clear advantage
Consensus has WYO by 8.5; the model says WYO by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WYO by 8.5 · model WYO by 0.3
Mkt WYO 8.5
Model WYO 0.3
← WYO by 28tieAKR by 28 →
15.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 43.6
Mkt 49.5
Model 43.6
24 pts6096 pts
14.4% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 43.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
