The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Rutgers Scarlet KnightsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
RUTG by 2.5market RUTG by 11.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.1 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Rutgers Scarlet Knights at 56% to win, with the market at RUTG by 11.5.
Counterpoint: rushing favours OHIO. OHIO rushing ranks #24, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into OHIO's #69. The pick still lands on RUTG because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: OHIO has the better last five games by 16.2 points a game (RUTG -8.2, OHIO +8.0).
Home field is with RUTG, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it RUTG by 2.5 against a market RUTG by 11.5: 9.0 points of daylight in OHIO's favour. The model's total is 55.1 against a line of 46.5: 8.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model RUTG by 2.5 · market RUTG by 11.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor OHIO, but the model still picks RUTG. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO passing ranks #61, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into OHIO's #47.
Rushing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO rushing ranks #24, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into OHIO's #69.
Third down & red zone
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO points / scoring opportunity ranks #84, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #101 into OHIO's #13.
Big plays
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO rush explosiveness ranks #15, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into OHIO's #93.
Pass protection & rush
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO sack rate ranks #105, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into OHIO's #78.
Ball security
RUTG
Slight advantage
RUTG turnovers / game ranks #17, OHIO defends it at #63; the other way OHIO #92 into RUTG's #112.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Clear advantage
RUTG −8.2 per game over the last five, OHIO +8.0.
Market
RUTG
Clear advantage
Consensus has RUTG by 11.5; the model says RUTG by 2.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket RUTG by 11.5 · model RUTG by 2.5
Mkt RUTG 11.5
Model RUTG 2.5
← OHIO by 28tieRUTG by 28 →
20.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 55.1
Mkt 46.5
Model 55.1
24 pts6096 pts
22.0% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 55.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
