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The Mavericks (26-56 in 2025–26) host the Nuggets (54-28 in 2025–26) on Mar 31, 2027, 9:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
DEN offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
DAL offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
DENDAL
Expected pace: about 104 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
DENDALNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Cooper Flagg's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 37.1 | 24.0 | 4.8 | 7.2 |
| Nikola Jokic | 35.4 | 24.0 | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| Christian Braun | 31.7 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 31.2 | 15.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | 29.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 24.0 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Bruce Brown | 22.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| David Roddy | 20.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 33.1 | 24.7 | 6.8 | 5.3 |
| P.J. Washington | 32.1 | 16.3 | 7.8 | 1.0 |
| Naji Marshall | 30.4 | 17.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Max Christie | 27.9 | 10.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Moussa Cisse | 26.0 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 0.3 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 24.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 7.0 |
| Daniel Gafford | 22.0 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 1.3 |
| Brandon Williams | 21.6 | 12.8 | 2.1 | 4.5 |
DEN offenseper gameDAL defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
DEN offense vs DAL defenseDAL offense vs DEN defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
DENForAgainst50% of DEN's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
DALForAgainst51% of DAL's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
DEN 6series4 DAL| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | DAL 135 | DEN 142 | DEN+7 | +7 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | DEN 118 | DAL 109 | DEN+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | DEN 130 | DAL 131 | DAL+1 | +1 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | DAL 131 | DEN 121 | DAL+10 | +10 |
| Jan 14, 2025 | DEN 118 | DAL 99 | DEN+19 | +19 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | DEN 112 | DAL 101 | DEN+11 | +11 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2024 | DAL 123 | DEN 120 | DAL+3 | +3 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | DAL 120 | DEN 122 | DEN+2 | +2 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | DEN 105 | DAL 107 | DAL+2 | +2 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2023 | DAL 104 | DEN 130 | DEN+26 | +26 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | DEN54-28 · last 82 games | DAL26-56 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 119.6#1 of 30 | 108.6#27 of 30 | 112.8 |
| Points for | 122.1#1 of 30 | 114.1#23 of 30 | 115.6 |
| Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road) | +4.7#6 of 30 | −3.5#22 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Possessions per game | 102.1#20 of 30 | 105.1#4 of 30 | 102.5 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.