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The Nuggets (54-28 in 2025–26) host the Pistons (60-22 in 2025–26) on Jan 3, 2027, 5:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
DET offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 1
DEN offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
DETDEN
Expected pace: about 103 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
DETDENNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Jamal Murray's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniss Jenkins | 31.4 | 16.0 | 3.9 | 6.9 |
| Jalen Duren | 30.4 | 22.8 | 10.2 | 3.2 |
| Ausar Thompson | 27.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Duncan Robinson | 26.6 | 13.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Tobias Harris | 25.5 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| Kevin Huerter | 24.3 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Cade Cunningham | 20.3 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 7.8 |
| Caris LeVert | 18.7 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 37.1 | 24.0 | 4.8 | 7.2 |
| Nikola Jokic | 35.4 | 24.0 | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| Christian Braun | 31.7 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 31.2 | 15.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | 29.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 24.0 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Bruce Brown | 22.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| David Roddy | 20.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
DET offenseper gameDEN defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
DET offense vs DEN defenseDEN offense vs DET defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
DETForAgainst52% of DET's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
DENForAgainst50% of DEN's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
DET 2series4 DEN| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | DEN 121 | DET 124 | DET+3 | +3 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | DET 109 | DEN 107 | DET+2 | +2 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2025 | DEN 134 | DET 119 | DEN+15 | +15 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | DET 121 | DEN 134 | DEN+13 | +13 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | DET 114 | DEN 131 | DEN+17 | +17 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | DEN 107 | DET 103 | DEN+4 | +4 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | DET60-22 · last 82 games | DEN54-28 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half points against | 53.8#29 of 30 | 59.6#5 of 30 | 57.5 |
| 3rd quarter points for | 28.9#22 of 30 | 31.3#1 of 30 | 29.2 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 106.5#29 of 30 | 114.5#10 of 30 | 112.7 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 114.4#11 of 30 | 119.6#1 of 30 | 112.8 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.