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The Nuggets (54-28 in 2025–26) host the Timberwolves (49-33 in 2025–26) on Dec 28, 2026, 10:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
MIN offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
DEN offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · MIN defense in 1
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MINDEN
Expected pace: about 103 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
MINDENNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Jamal Murray's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 33.1 | 22.1 | 5.8 | 4.6 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 32.6 | 18.3 | 6.4 | 4.4 |
| Rudy Gobert | 30.5 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 1.2 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 30.4 | 16.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 28.3 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Anthony Edwards | 28.3 | 16.5 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
| Naz Reid | 25.9 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.4 |
| Bones Hyland | 24.5 | 14.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 37.1 | 24.0 | 4.8 | 7.2 |
| Nikola Jokic | 35.4 | 24.0 | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| Christian Braun | 31.7 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 31.2 | 15.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | 29.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 24.0 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Bruce Brown | 22.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| David Roddy | 20.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
MIN offenseper gameDEN defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
MIN offense vs DEN defenseDEN offense vs MIN defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
MINForAgainst50% of MIN's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
DENForAgainst50% of DEN's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MIN 5series5 DEN| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | DEN 98 | MIN 110 | MIN+12 | +12 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | MIN 113 | DEN 125 | DEN+12 | +12 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | DEN 96 | MIN 112 | MIN+16 | +16 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | DEN 96 | MIN 113 | MIN+17 | +17 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | MIN 119 | DEN 114 | MIN+5 | +5 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | MIN 105 | DEN 116 | DEN+11 | +11 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | MIN 117 | DEN 108 | MIN+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 2025 | MIN 138 | DEN 142 | DEN+4 | +4 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | DEN 123 | MIN 112 | DEN+11 | +11 |
| Oct 27, 2025 | DEN 127 | MIN 114 | DEN+13 | +13 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIN49-33 · last 82 games | DEN54-28 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter points for | 29.1#16 of 30 | 30.9#3 of 30 | 29.4 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 110.5#23 of 30 | 114.5#10 of 30 | 112.7 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.8#13 of 30 | 119.6#1 of 30 | 112.8 |
| Points against | 114.6#19 of 30 | 116.9#10 of 30 | 115.6 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.