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The Warriors (37-45 in 2025–26) host the Timberwolves (49-33 in 2025–26) on Dec 27, 2026, 8:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
MIN offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · GSW defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
GSW offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIN defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MINGSW
Expected pace: about 103 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
MINGSWNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Julius Randle's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 33.1 | 22.1 | 5.8 | 4.6 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 32.6 | 18.3 | 6.4 | 4.4 |
| Rudy Gobert | 30.5 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 1.2 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 30.4 | 16.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 28.3 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Anthony Edwards | 28.3 | 16.5 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
| Naz Reid | 25.9 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.4 |
| Bones Hyland | 24.5 | 14.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 29.7 | 17.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Gui Santos | 29.4 | 15.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Draymond Green | 29.0 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| Stephen Curry | 26.8 | 20.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 25.0 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 24.2 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| Pat Spencer | 23.0 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| Gary Payton II | 21.5 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
MIN offenseper gameGSW defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
MIN offense vs GSW defenseGSW offense vs MIN defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
MINForAgainst50% of MIN's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
GSWForAgainst49% of GSW's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MIN 7series3 GSW| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | MIN 127 | GSW 117 | MIN+10 | +10 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | GSW 83 | MIN 108 | MIN+25 | +25 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GSW 111 | MIN 85 | GSW+26 | +26 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | MIN 127 | GSW 120 | MIN+7 | +7 |
| May 14, 2025 | GSW 110 | MIN 121 | MIN+11 | +11 |
| May 12, 2025 | MIN 117 | GSW 110 | MIN+7 | +7 |
| May 10, 2025 | MIN 102 | GSW 97 | MIN+5 | +5 |
| May 8, 2025 | GSW 93 | MIN 117 | MIN+24 | +24 |
| May 6, 2025 | GSW 99 | MIN 88 | GSW+11 | +11 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | GSW 116 | MIN 115 | GSW+1 | +1 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIN49-33 · last 82 games | GSW37-45 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points for | 118.0#7 of 30 | 114.6#22 of 30 | 115.6 |
| Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road) | +3.0#8 of 30 | +1.3#19 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +3.2#10 of 30 | −0.5#20 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 110.5#23 of 30 | 112.6#14 of 30 | 112.7 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.