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The Spurs (62-20 in 2025–26) host the Hawks (46-36 in 2025–26) on Dec 27, 2026, 7:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
ATL offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · SAS defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
SAS offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 1
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
ATLSAS
Expected pace: about 104 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
ATLSASNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Victor Wembanyama's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 35.0 | 20.3 | 9.8 | 7.0 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 33.8 | 24.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| Dyson Daniels | 32.5 | 13.8 | 7.9 | 4.8 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 29.9 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 |
| CJ McCollum | 29.6 | 18.9 | 2.6 | 4.9 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 21.3 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| Jock Landale | 20.9 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 16.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle | 30.6 | 17.0 | 6.6 | 9.3 |
| Devin Vassell | 29.8 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 28.6 | 27.8 | 13.0 | 3.8 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 28.6 | 16.4 | 3.8 | 5.6 |
| Julian Champagnie | 27.1 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 |
| Dylan Harper | 24.4 | 14.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Keldon Johnson | 23.5 | 15.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 |
| Harrison Barnes | 21.8 | 8.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
ATL offenseper gameSAS defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
ATL offense vs SAS defenseSAS offense vs ATL defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
ATLForAgainst52% of ATL's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
SASForAgainst50% of SAS's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
ATL 2series4 SAS| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | SAS 126 | ATL 98 | SAS+28 | +28 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | ATL 126 | SAS 135 | SAS+9 | +9 |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SAS 126 | ATL 125 | SAS+1 | +1 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2024 | ATL 126 | SAS 133 | SAS+7 | +7 |
| Jan 15, 2024 | SAS 99 | ATL 109 | ATL+10 | +10 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | ATL 137 | SAS 135 | ATL+2 | +2 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | ATL46-36 · last 82 games | SAS62-20 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half points against | 58.7#15 of 30 | 55.6#27 of 30 | 58.2 |
| Possessions per game | 104.6#5 of 30 | 102.8#16 of 30 | 102.5 |
| Scoring margin | +2.4#12 of 30 | +8.3#2 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.3#14 of 30 | 116.6#4 of 30 | 112.8 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.