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The Warriors (37-45 in 2025–26) host the Mavericks (26-56 in 2025–26) on Dec 22, 2026, 10:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
DAL offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · GSW defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
GSW offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
DALGSW
Expected pace: about 104 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
DALGSWNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Cooper Flagg's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 33.1 | 24.7 | 6.8 | 5.3 |
| P.J. Washington | 32.1 | 16.3 | 7.8 | 1.0 |
| Naji Marshall | 30.4 | 17.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Max Christie | 27.9 | 10.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Moussa Cisse | 26.0 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 0.3 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 24.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 7.0 |
| Daniel Gafford | 22.0 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 1.3 |
| Brandon Williams | 21.6 | 12.8 | 2.1 | 4.5 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 29.7 | 17.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Gui Santos | 29.4 | 15.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Draymond Green | 29.0 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| Stephen Curry | 26.8 | 20.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 25.0 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 24.2 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| Pat Spencer | 23.0 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| Gary Payton II | 21.5 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
DAL offenseper gameGSW defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
DAL offense vs GSW defenseGSW offense vs DAL defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
DALForAgainst51% of DAL's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
GSWForAgainst49% of GSW's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
DAL 5series5 GSW| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | GSW 137 | DAL 131 | GSW+6 | +6 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | GSW 115 | DAL 123 | DAL+8 | +8 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 2025 | DAL 116 | GSW 126 | GSW+10 | +10 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | DAL 102 | GSW 126 | GSW+24 | +24 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | GSW 107 | DAL 111 | DAL+4 | +4 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2024 | DAL 143 | GSW 133 | DAL+10 | +10 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | DAL 117 | GSW 120 | GSW+3 | +3 |
| Apr 5, 2024 | GSW 106 | DAL 108 | DAL+2 | +2 |
| Apr 2, 2024 | DAL 100 | GSW 104 | GSW+4 | +4 |
| Mar 13, 2024 | GSW 99 | DAL 109 | DAL+10 | +10 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | DAL26-56 · last 82 games | GSW37-45 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter points against | 31.8#3 of 30 | 28.8#19 of 30 | 29.4 |
| Possessions per game | 105.1#4 of 30 | 102.3#18 of 30 | 102.5 |
| Points for (home at home, visitor on the road) | 111.9#26 of 30 | 117.1#13 of 30 | 115.6 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.6#27 of 30 | 112.0#18 of 30 | 112.8 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.