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The Grizzlies (25-57 in 2025–26) host the Heat (43-39 in 2025–26) on Dec 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
MIA offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · MEM defense in 0 · 1 even
MEM offense ranks better in 0 of 4 matchups · MIA defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MIAMEM
Expected pace: about 105 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
MIAMEMNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Bam Adebayo's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 35.1 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 4.4 |
| Tyler Herro | 32.2 | 18.2 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Pelle Larsson | 30.6 | 14.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Davion Mitchell | 29.7 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| Norman Powell | 27.6 | 17.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 27.2 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26.2 | 17.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Kel'el Ware | 20.0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 1.5 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Okani | 36.2 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 34.3 | 14.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 |
| Lucas Williamson | 32.0 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 |
| Jahmai Mashack | 31.9 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| Dariq Whitehead | 30.5 | 16.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Adama Bal | 30.1 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Tyler Burton | 25.4 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 |
| GG Jackson | 25.1 | 18.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
MIA offenseper gameMEM defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
MIA offense vs MEM defenseMEM offense vs MIA defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
MIAForAgainst50% of MIA's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
MEMForAgainst49% of MEM's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MIA 5series4 MEM| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MEM 120 | MIA 136 | MIA+16 | +16 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2025 | MIA 146 | MEM 114 | MIA+32 | +32 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | MEM 141 | MIA 125 | MEM+16 | +16 |
| Apr 3, 2025 | MEM 110 | MIA 108 | MEM+2 | +2 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MIA 91 | MEM 125 | MEM+34 | +34 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2024 | MIA 114 | MEM 109 | MIA+5 | +5 |
| Jan 24, 2024 | MEM 105 | MIA 96 | MEM+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2023 | MIA 108 | MEM 102 | MIA+6 | +6 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | MEM 124 | MIA 132 | MIA+8 | +8 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIA43-39 · last 82 games | MEM25-57 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points for | 120.9#2 of 30 | 114.7#20 of 30 | 115.6 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.8#12 of 30 | 109.9#25 of 30 | 112.8 |
| Scoring margin | +2.3#13 of 30 | −6.0#24 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +2.2#13 of 30 | −5.8#24 of 30 | 0.0 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.