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The Rockets (52-30 in 2025–26) host the Nuggets (54-28 in 2025–26) on Nov 9, 2026, 8:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
DEN offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · HOU defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
HOU offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
DENHOU
Expected pace: about 101 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
DENHOUNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Kevin Durant's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 37.1 | 24.0 | 4.8 | 7.2 |
| Nikola Jokic | 35.4 | 24.0 | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| Christian Braun | 31.7 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 31.2 | 15.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | 29.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 24.0 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Bruce Brown | 22.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| David Roddy | 20.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 38.8 | 20.4 | 8.0 | 5.4 |
| Kevin Durant | 36.1 | 26.6 | 5.3 | 6.3 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 36.1 | 17.1 | 7.1 | 2.1 |
| Alperen Sengun | 32.9 | 21.2 | 8.6 | 6.7 |
| Reed Sheppard | 27.1 | 14.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Tari Eason | 24.3 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.1 |
| Aaron Holiday | 15.9 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Josh Okogie | 12.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
DEN offenseper gameHOU defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
DEN offense vs HOU defenseHOU offense vs DEN defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
DENForAgainst50% of DEN's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
HOUForAgainst50% of HOU's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
DEN 6series4 HOU| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | HOU 93 | DEN 129 | DEN+36 | +36 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | HOU 115 | DEN 101 | HOU+14 | +14 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | HOU 125 | DEN 128 | DEN+3 | +3 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | DEN 112 | HOU 109 | DEN+3 | +3 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | DEN 126 | HOU 111 | DEN+15 | +15 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | DEN 116 | HOU 111 | DEN+5 | +5 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | HOU 128 | DEN 108 | HOU+20 | +20 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2023 | HOU 114 | DEN 106 | HOU+8 | +8 |
| Nov 29, 2023 | HOU 124 | DEN 134 | DEN+10 | +10 |
| Nov 24, 2023 | DEN 86 | HOU 105 | HOU+19 | +19 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | DEN54-28 · last 82 games | HOU52-30 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points for (home at home, visitor on the road) | 123.3#1 of 30 | 114.8#23 of 30 | 115.6 |
| 3rd quarter points against | 29.9#8 of 30 | 26.9#30 of 30 | 29.2 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 114.5#10 of 30 | 109.9#26 of 30 | 112.7 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 119.6#1 of 30 | 115.1#9 of 30 | 112.8 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.