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The Nuggets (54-28 in 2025–26) host the Warriors (37-45 in 2025–26) on Oct 26, 2026, 10:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
GSW offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups · DEN defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
DEN offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · GSW defense in 1
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
GSWDEN
Expected pace: about 102 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
GSWDENNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Jamal Murray's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 29.7 | 17.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Gui Santos | 29.4 | 15.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Draymond Green | 29.0 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| Stephen Curry | 26.8 | 20.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 25.0 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 24.2 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| Pat Spencer | 23.0 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| Gary Payton II | 21.5 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 37.1 | 24.0 | 4.8 | 7.2 |
| Nikola Jokic | 35.4 | 24.0 | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| Christian Braun | 31.7 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 31.2 | 15.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | 29.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 24.0 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Bruce Brown | 22.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| David Roddy | 20.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
GSW offenseper gameDEN defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
GSW offense vs DEN defenseDEN offense vs GSW defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
GSWForAgainst49% of GSW's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
DENForAgainst50% of DEN's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
GSW 3series7 DEN| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | GSW 93 | DEN 116 | DEN+23 | +23 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | DEN 117 | GSW 128 | GSW+11 | +11 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2025 | GSW 104 | DEN 129 | DEN+25 | +25 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | DEN 131 | GSW 137 | GSW+6 | +6 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | DEN 104 | GSW 118 | GSW+14 | +14 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | DEN 114 | GSW 105 | DEN+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | GSW 115 | DEN 119 | DEN+4 | +4 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | DEN 119 | GSW 103 | DEN+16 | +16 |
| Jan 4, 2024 | DEN 130 | GSW 127 | DEN+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 2023 | GSW 114 | DEN 120 | DEN+6 | +6 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | GSW37-45 · last 82 games | DEN54-28 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter points for | 28.4#26 of 30 | 30.9#3 of 30 | 29.4 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 112.0#18 of 30 | 119.6#1 of 30 | 112.8 |
| Scoring margin | −0.6#20 of 30 | +5.1#7 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | −0.5#20 of 30 | +5.0#7 of 30 | 0.0 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.