The Padres (91-71) host the Brewers (103-59) at Petco Park on Oct 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ET; probable starters Dustin May and Nick Pivetta.
Market· 3 books· best MIL +116 FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab) · SD -134 FanDuel (opens FanDuel in a new tab)·
Against this opponent since last season: 4 starts, 27.0 IP, 2.67 ERA, 23 K.
Against this opponent since last season: 1 start, 5.7 IP, 4.74 ERA, 5 K.
Season numbers to date; a starter with few innings has a noisy line.
MILProjected: regularsMIL bats 5 left · 4 right. Against Nick Pivetta (RHP): 5 from the opposite side, 4 from his own side.
| Batting order# | Hitter | Pos · bats | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | RF · R | .291 | .834 | 25 |
| 2 | Brice Turang | 2B · L | .268 | .812 | 21 |
| 3 | Garrett Mitchell | CF · L | .262 | .757 | 11 |
| 4 | William Contreras | C · R | .270 | .751 | 18 |
| 5 | Jake Bauers | DH · L | .266 | .867 | 26 |
| 6 | Christian Yelich | LF · L | .235 | .684 | 12 |
| 7 | Joey Ortiz | 3B · R | .270 | .727 | 9 |
| 8 | Cooper Pratt | SS · R | .281 | .707 | 3 |
| 9 | David Hamilton | SS · L | .245 | .633 | 4 |
The club has not posted its order yet. These are the nine who started most of MIL's last ten games, in the spot they usually hit.
SDProjected: regularsSD bats 3 left · 5 right · 1 not on file. Against Dustin May (RHP): 3 from the opposite side, 5 from his own side, 1 unknown.
| Batting order# | Hitter | Pos · bats | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF · R | .289 | .818 | 25 |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | DH · L | .293 | .712 | 0 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | DH · R | .218 | .710 | 30 |
| 4 | Ty France | 1B · R | .295 | .836 | 21 |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill | CF · L | .254 | .737 | 26 |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | 2B · R | .231 | .669 | 13 |
| 7 | Jake Cronenworth | 1B · L | .225 | .610 | 7 |
| 8 | Luis Campusano | C · R | .265 | .783 | 8 |
| 9 | Ethan Salas | C | .256 | .737 | 2 |
The club has not posted its order yet. These are the nine who started most of SD's last ten games, in the spot they usually hit.
MIL7 on the injured listand 6 more, none with a regular role this season.
SD6 on the injured listand 2 more, none with a regular role this season.
The plate umpire is posted the day of the game.
543 relief innings among these arms. Fresh = did not pitch today or yesterday and threw under 40 pitches over the last three days. Counts finished games through today, including earlier games the same day, updated as games end.
526 relief innings among these arms. Fresh = did not pitch today or yesterday and threw under 40 pitches over the last three days. Counts finished games through today, including earlier games the same day, updated as games end.
| Row | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MILscored | .75 | 1.10 | .45 | .40 | 1.00 | .40 | .30 | .75 | .67 |
| MILallowed | .10 | .60 | .35 | .30 | .20 | .20 | .25 | .75 | .56 |
| SDscored | .50 | 1.45 | .70 | .75 | 1.15 | .35 | .60 | .40 | .07 |
| SDallowed | .45 | .60 | .50 | .30 | .35 | .85 | .65 | .30 | .41 |
| League | .53 | .46 | .50 | .49 | .53 | .51 | .48 | .52 | .45 |
Runs a game in each inning over each club's last 20 games (MIL 20 on file, SD 20). Volt is better than the league's rate for that inning by 10% or more, orange worse; the league line is the regular-season average per club.
Pro: Hit rates and the gap vs price are part of ProStart 7-day free trialorcreate a free account
Jackson Chourio · Over 0.5SoftestB+
Dustin Harris · Over 0.5Bars: recent games vs the line (up = over, down = under)
Hit rates, streaks and head-to-head are the player's own history against each line, descriptive only, never our own over/under record.
Season totals, not a projection for this game.
Team pitching, starters and bullpen together.
| Hitter | AVG | OPS | Last 14 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brice Turang2B | .265 | .804 | 21 | 100 | .2812HR |
 William ContrerasC | .269 | .752 | 19 | 95 | .2081HR |
 Jake BauersDH | .267 | .862 | 26 | 86 | .226 |
| Jackson ChourioRF | .291 | .834 | 26 | 79 | ▲ .4002HR |
 Garrett MitchellCF | .263 | .756 | 11 | 65 | .214 |
 Christian YelichLF | .237 | .687 | 12 | 59 | .2381HR |
 Joey Ortiz3B | .267 | .720 | 9 | 47 | .267 |
 David HamiltonSS | .243 | .628 | 4 | 26 | .294 |
 Sal FrelickCF | .232 | .608 | 4 | 41 | ▼ .167 |
 Cooper PrattSS | .277 | .695 | 3 | 34 | .227 |
| Hitter | AVG | OPS | Last 14 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fernando Tatis Jr.RF | .286 | .811 | 26 | 84 | ▲ .3061HR |
 Manny MachadoDH | .221 | .723 | 31 | 93 | .2573HR |
 Jackson MerrillCF | .256 | .735 | 26 | 89 | .265 |
 Xander Bogaerts2B | .234 | .680 | 14 | 59 | ▲ .3332HR |
 Ty France1B | .301 | .840 | 21 | 74 | .297 |
 Jake Cronenworth1B | .221 | .595 | 7 | 42 | ▼ .125 |
 Luis CampusanoC | .268 | .784 | 8 | 31 | ▲ .316 |
 Samad TaylorLF | .314 | .778 | 2 | 18 | ▼ .105 |
| Dustin HarrisDH | .284 | .686 | 0 | 20 | .216 |
 Austin HaysLF | .262 | .660 | 3 | 15 | .235 |
May pitching (2026) on the left, Jr. batting (2026) on the right — each bar is that player's own percentile among that season's qualified group, colored for whether it's good news for him, not just how big the number is.
Descriptive history for both players, not a forecast of this at-bat.
Starters' numbers are their season going into the game; weather is the first-pitch forecast; lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. Descriptive data only, there is no MLB model. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIL103-59 · last 162 games | SD91-71 · last 162 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hits per game | 8.78#1 of 30 | 8.11#19 of 30 | 8.20 |
| Games scoring no runs | 3.7%#27 of 30 | 7.4%#9 of 30 | 6.2% |
| Home runs per game | 0.95#28 of 30 | 1.13#14 of 30 | 1.15 |
| Runs scored (home at home, visitor on the road) | 4.75#6 of 30 | 4.26#19 of 30 | 4.48 |
| Run margin | +1.3#1 of 30 | +0.3#10 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Games with 5 or more runs scored | 48.8%#3 of 30 | 45.1%#8 of 30 | 43.3% |
The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.
Where a player's own games in the situations this game has and the books' no-vig chance disagree by more than luck usually explains. Some still are luck. History, not a pick.
It is the postseason. These splits compare a player's regular-season games with playoff prices, and roles, lineups and usage change in October. Far more splits clear the bar than luck alone explains, so read each one as a place to look, not as a finding.
Dustin May has gone over 3.5 hits allowed in 41 of 54 starts over the last two seasons.
Also cleared the bar (road): 20 of 25 on the over side.
Lines from regulated US sportsbooks; they can lag what a book shows right now. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.