Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playJMA Wireless DomeStadium scoring factor 101 (60th of 134, 100 = league average) · 54.5 points a game in 21 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
CONN offensevsSYR defense
CONN offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · SYR defense in 0
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 121 places
+0.43
#5Stronger
+0.36
#126
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.18
#23Stronger
+0.06
#66
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#60slight
41%
#86
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.58
#14Stronger
4.15
#113
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 103 places
11.9%
#11Stronger
13.4%
#114
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 127 places
0.15
#1Stronger
0.75
#128
SYR offensevsCONN defense
SYR offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · CONN defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#128
+0.17
Stronger#72
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#122slight
+0.18
#124
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#107
37%
Stronger#50
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
2.98
#122
3.80
Stronger#82
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
18.8%
#126
14.8%
Stronger#91
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.92
#129
1.31
Stronger#65
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CONN offenseSYR defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors CONN
+0.43#5
+0.36#126▲
Pass success ratefavors CONN
47%#22
46%#120
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.59#48
1.54#59
Yards / pass attemptfavors CONN
8.2#28
7.8#112
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
10.2%#68
10.3%#80▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors CONN
3.0%#11
4.0%#114▲
Completion %favors CONN
68%#14
66%#121
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SYR
2.4%#67▼
3.8%#12▼
SYR offenseCONN defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors CONN
−0.04#128▼
+0.17#72▲
Pass success ratefavors CONN
35%#124
43%#89
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.58#51
1.56#67
Yards / pass attemptfavors CONN
6.4#112▼
7.2#75
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors CONN
9.7%#78▼
9.3%#51▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors CONN
7.1%#112▲
8.1%#9▼
Completion %
56%#121
65%#110
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SYR
1.2%#14▲
0.3%#135▲
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
Points in the 1st half:CONN scores 53% · allows 43%SYR scores 55% · allows 51%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
CONNSYRsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
CONN8 games
Scored17.1
Allowed17.0
Pass share53%
45–61% · 250 plays
SYR7 games
Scored14.4
Allowed15.3
Pass share47%
40–55% · 245 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
CONN5 games
Scored15.8
Allowed10.0
Pass share48%
41–55% · 154 plays
SYR1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed28.0
Pass share39%
36 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
CONN4 games
Scored14.3
Allowed19.8
Pass share54%
48–60% · 108 plays
SYR9 games
Scored9.7
Allowed14.4
Pass share53%
45–61% · 315 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
CONNat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 4 (of 17)
9.7
3.7Q1
8.4
8.3Q2
18.1scored12.0allowedleague 14.6
1st half
8.2
5.8Q3
6.6
7.8Q4
SYRat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 9 (of 17)
4.8
7.4Q1
9.3
9.1Q2
14.1scored16.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
3.2
7.5Q3
7.3
7.7Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CONNSYR
9-4
Record
3-9
35.3
Points for / game
20.2
27.0
Points against / game
34.9
6-0 / 3-4
Home / road
2-4 / 1-5
L W W W W
Last 5
L L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 12–13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
CONNSYR
+5.1
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−13.1
0.296
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
-0.056
0.158
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.213
46% / 47%
Success rate (off / def)
38% / 45%
1.34 / 1.19
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.19 / 1.32
568
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
728
68%
Returning production
13%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CONNSYR
2-6 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-10 · 38%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), CONN 26 games, SYR 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0CONNseriesSYR3
Avg total points
61.7
Meetings
3
They have met every season in our history. SYR have won the last 3.
2026SYR 42 at CONN 41SYR
2025CONN 20 at SYR 27SYR
2024CONN 24 at SYR 31SYR
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
