Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz StadiumStadium scoring factor 101 (65th of 134, 100 = league average) · 54.2 points a game in 25 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
VT offensevsSC defense
VT offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · SC defense in 6 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 39 places
+0.06
#116
+0.19
Stronger#77
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.15
#31
−0.06
slight#11
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#73
40%
slight#71
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 40 places
3.68
#69
3.15
Stronger#29
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.7%
#97
16.0%
Stronger#60
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 55 places
1.25
#70
1.83
Stronger#15
SC offensevsVT defense
SC offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · VT defense in 3
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.07
#111slight
+0.38
#130
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#100slight
+0.15
#112
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
32%
#127
45%
slight#123
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
2.61
#133
4.34
slight#125
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
19.8%
#129
13.2%
slight#117
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.50
#99Stronger
0.50
#135
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
VT offenseSC defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors SC
+0.06#116▼
+0.19#77▲
Pass success rate
34%#130
44%#106
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.70#21
1.48#41
Yards / pass attemptfavors SC
6.3#120
7.0#57
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
9.2%#92
10.9%#95
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
7.1%#110
4.1%#112▼
Completion %favors SC
56%#120
60%#47
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors VT
1.3%#15▲
2.9%#42▼
SC offenseVT defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.07#111▲
+0.38#130
Pass success rate
36%#119
47%#123
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.65#30
1.54#56
Yards / pass attemptfavors SC
7.9#38
7.8#111
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors SC
10.9%#46▲
11.5%#110▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
10.1%#132
4.3%#110▼
Completion %favors SC
61%#80
67%#127
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors VT
3.5%#103▼
2.6%#55▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:VT scores 54% · allows 47%SC scores 62% · allows 46%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
VTSCsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
VT7 games
Scored10.4
Allowed14.6
Pass share40%
35–45% · 201 plays
SC8 games
Scored15.4
Allowed12.9
Pass share40%
31–49% · 266 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
VT4 games
Scored9.3
Allowed16.5
Pass share47%
42–51% · 131 plays
SC4 games
Scored5.8
Allowed10.3
Pass share50%
33–68% · 119 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
VT6 games
Scored16.8
Allowed13.0
Pass share47%
32–62% · 205 plays
SC5 games
Scored6.2
Allowed14.2
Pass share50%
41–59% · 163 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
VTat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.5
4.3Q1
8.4
8.4Q2
14.8scored12.6allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.4
6.2Q3
6.1
7.8Q4
SCat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 5 (of 17)
6.8
3.9Q1
9.8
6.9Q2
16.6scored10.8allowedleague 14.6
1st half
4.8
5.7Q3
5.2
6.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
VTSC
3-9
Record
4-8
21.4
Points for / game
22.7
30.2
Points against / game
22.1
2-5 / 1-4
Home / road
4-4 / 0-4
L L L L W
Last 5
L W L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 12 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
VTSC
−10.1
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+5.9
0.107
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.010
0.243
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.052
42% / 46%
Success rate (off / def)
37% / 42%
1.25 / 1.25
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.32 / 1.19
712
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
833
40%
Returning production
63%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
VTSC
1-9 · 10%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-9 · 25%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), VT 25 games, SC 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0VTseriesSC1
Avg total points
35.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025VT 11 vs SC 24SC
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
