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Arkansas (25-8 in 2025–26) hosts Mississippi State (13-19 in 2025–26) on Jan 30, 2027.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
MSST offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · ARK defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
ARK offense ranks better in 4 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · MSST defense in 0
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MSSTARK
Expected pace: about 72 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
MSSTARKNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Darius Acuff Jr.'s full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard | 34.3 | 21.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| Jayden Epps | 26.7 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. | 24.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming | 22.8 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee | 20.7 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Achor Achor | 18.5 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 0.3 |
| Sergej Macura | 18.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 0.5 |
| Quincy Ballard | 18.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 37.9 | 27.4 | 3.4 | 7.0 |
| Trevon Brazile | 35.7 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 1.9 |
| Meleek Thomas | 33.8 | 15.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| Billy Richmond III | 33.7 | 14.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Malique Ewin | 22.7 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 0.8 |
| D.J. Wagner | 22.2 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Karter Knox | 18.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Nick Pringle | 17.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
MSST offenseper gameARK defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
MSSTForAgainst48% of MSST's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
ARKForAgainst47% of ARK's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MSST 3series4 ARK| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | ARK 88 | MSST 68 | ARK+20 | +20 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | MSST 92 | ARK 93 | ARK+1 | +1 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | ARK 67 | MSST 71 | MSST+4 | +4 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | MSST 70 | ARK 64 | MSST+6 | +6 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2022 | MSST 55 | ARK 63 | ARK+8 | +8 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2021 | ARK 68 | MSST 81 | MSST+13 | +13 |
| Feb 2, 2021 | MSST 45 | ARK 61 | ARK+16 | +16 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MSST12-18 · last 30 games | ARK23-7 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring margin | −4.7#272 of 361 | +8.0#37 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | −6.6#266 of 361 | +11.1#41 of 361 | −0.7 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.1#208 of 361 | 123.6#3 of 361 | 109.2 |
| Points for | 77.3#107 of 361 | 89.4#2 of 361 | 74.3 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.