Toledo vs Buffalo Odds, Stats & Props — Jan 23

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Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.

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What to know

Scoring margin

TOL +2.3 · BUF +0.5

Points scored minus allowed a game, 2025–26. Each team's own average, not a forecast.

Form

TOL 7-3 · BUF 3-7

Each team's record over its last ten games.

Rest

TOL 3d · BUF 3d

Days off before this game, from the schedule.

Offense vs defense: the four factorsHistory

ranks betterranks worseStronger72+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 361 (#1 = best)

TOL offensevsBUF defense

TOL offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · BUF defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)

Shooting · effective FG%

54.5%

#54Stronger

55.1%

#330

Turnovers · per 100 plays

13.0%

#55slight

15.7%

#103

Offensive rebounding %

29.5%

#216

31.1%

slight#208

Free throw rate

23.0%

#250

23.3%

Stronger#106

BUF offensevsTOL defense

BUF offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · TOL defense in 2

Shooting · effective FG%

55.4%

#31Stronger

54.3%

#306

Turnovers · per 100 plays

14.5%

#177

15.4%

slight#120

Offensive rebounding %

27.1%

#291slight

33.7%

#311

Free throw rate

29.1%

#64

18.2%

slight#10

Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.

Key numbers and mismatchesHistory

TOLBUF

+3.4 121stNet rating168th +0.7

115.9 61stOffensive rating75th 114.8

112.5 250thDefensive rating284th 114.1

68.9 140thPace213th 67.5

Expected pace: about 68 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.

Where one side has the better of it

TOL effective shooting
TOL offense 54.5% (54th) vs BUF defense allowing 55.1% (330th)
+276 spots
BUF effective shooting
BUF offense 55.4% (31st) vs TOL defense allowing 54.3% (306th)
+275 spots
TOL 2-point shooting
TOL offense 54.0% (85th) vs BUF defense allowing 56.9% (338th)
+253 spots
BUF 2-point shooting
BUF offense 54.1% (82nd) vs TOL defense allowing 56.1% (328th)
+246 spots
TOL 3-point shooting
TOL offense 37.0% (29th) vs BUF defense allowing 35.1% (250th)
+221 spots

ContextHistory

last 10 days

TOL

AKR

BALL

BUF

3 days rest

BUF

BGSU

M-OH

TOL

3 days rest

homeroadday offthis gameFrom the schedule; travel distance is not tracked.

TOL · last 10

17-15 · 314 days rest

Mar 14 @ AKR2025–26L 76–79
Mar 13 vs MASS2025–26W 77–67
Mar 12 vs BGSU2025–26W 77–76
Mar 6 vs BUF2025–26W 99–78
Mar 3 @ M-OH2025–26L 72–74
Feb 28 @ OHIO2025–26W 79–67
Feb 24 vs NIU2025–26W 79–69
Feb 21 vs EMU2025–26W 94–75
Feb 14 @ BGSU2025–26L 70–80
Feb 11 @ WMU2025–26W 90–79

7-3 in these

BUF · last 10

15-15 · 316 days rest

Mar 12 @ AKR2025–26L 70–73
Mar 6 @ TOL2025–26L 78–99
Mar 3 vs EMU2025–26W 72–67
Feb 28 vs CMU2025–26L 70–75
Feb 24 @ AKR2025–26L 85–99
Feb 21 @ MASS2025–26W 86–82
Feb 17 vs NIU2025–26L 70–72
Feb 11 @ BALL2025–26W 63–53
Feb 7 @ USA2025–26L 69–81
Feb 3 vs M-OH2025–26L 71–73

3-7 in these

Player props

No lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number

Toledo Rockets

Buffalo Bulls

Ryan Sabol

BUF vs TOL

Player page →

Points No line yet

TOL at BUF

Full breakdown

Ryan Sabol's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…

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hit-rate splits and filters
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every book and the line history

TOL rotation · last 15 games

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast
Sonny Wilson	37.0	16.5	3.7	4.5
Leroy Blyden Jr.	34.7	17.0	4.8	5.0
Sean Craig	31.6	10.1	6.4	1.4
Austin Parks	27.1	9.9	5.7	2.1
Mynor Strong	23.7	8.5	2.5	0.9
Jaylan Ouwinga	18.5	7.6	3.5	0.6
Kyler Vanderjagt	16.0	4.9	0.7	0.7
Will James Jr.	10.2	3.7	1.7	1.1

BUF rotation · last 15 games

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast
Ryan Sabol	38.2	20.9	3.9	3.4
Angelo Brizzi	33.2	18.1	3.1	2.4
Noah Batchelor	32.6	7.9	4.7	1.3
Daniel Freitag	31.7	18.5	3.5	5.2
Derrick Talton Jr.	31.5	6.5	2.8	3.9
Tim Oboh	24.1	8.5	6.1	0.2
Mikhail Pocknett	15.7	3.8	3.0	0.5
Ezra McKenna	14.2	3.2	3.4	0.7

Team rankings (2025–26)History

TOL offenseper gameBUF defense

Effective FG%

54th54.5%

55.1%330th

Turnover %

55th13.0%

15.7%103rd

Offensive rebound %

216th29.5%

31.1%208th

Free throw rate

250th23.0%

23.3%106th

Points

71st79.8

77.0241st

Field goal %

26th48.5%

47.7%324th

2-point %

85th54.0%

56.9%338th

3-point %

29th37.0%

35.1%250th

Free throw %

66th75.4%

74.4%284th

Rebounds

264th33.0

34.0129th

Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.

Scoring by halfHistory

per game, last 17 games · the tick is the league's average team

TOLForAgainst

1st half

39.8

34.0

2nd half

39.5

41.4

Game

79.4

75.4

50% of TOL's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.

BUFForAgainst

1st half

33.5

37.6

2nd half

42.9

43.5

Game

76.4

81.2

44% of BUF's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.

Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.

SeriesHistory

10 meetings

TOL 9series1 BUF

Last 10TBTTTTTTTT

Avg total

162.0

combined points

Avg margin

TOL 11.4

per meeting

Biggest win

TOL +30

Feb 25, 2023

Last meeting

TOL won

Mar 6, 2026

Every meetingHistory

2026TOL 1-0 BUF

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 6, 2026	BUF 78	TOL 99	TOL+21	+21

2025TOL 1-1 BUF

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 1, 2025	TOL 74	BUF 87	BUF+13	+13
Feb 4, 2025	BUF 74	TOL 87	TOL+13	+13

2024TOL 2-0 BUF

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 2, 2024	TOL 85	BUF 79	TOL+6	+6
Jan 16, 2024	BUF 66	TOL 77	TOL+11	+11

2023TOL 2-0 BUF

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Feb 25, 2023	BUF 71	TOL 101	TOL+30	+30
Jan 20, 2023	TOL 86	BUF 77	TOL+9	+9

2022TOL 2-0 BUF

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Mar 1, 2022	TOL 92	BUF 76	TOL+16	+16
Jan 25, 2022	BUF 75	TOL 86	TOL+11	+11

2021TOL 1-0 BUF

Date	Road	Home	Winner	Margin
Feb 19, 2021	TOL 80	BUF 70	TOL+10	+10

Measure	TOL17-13 · last 30 games	BUF15-15 · last 30 games	League
Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road)	−0.6#84 of 361	−1.5#301 of 361	−0.5
Share of points scored in the 1st half	48.3%#58 of 361	45.9%#265 of 361	46.8%
Possessions per game	69.0#130 of 361	67.5#212 of 361	68.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions	112.0#137 of 361	114.1#79 of 361	109.9

Measure	TOL17-13 · last 30 games	BUF15-15 · last 30 games	League
Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road)	−0.6#84 of 361	−1.5#301 of 361	−0.5
Share of points scored in the 1st half	48.3%#58 of 361	45.9%#265 of 361	46.8%
Possessions per game	69.0#130 of 361	67.5#212 of 361	68.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions	112.0#137 of 361	114.1#79 of 361	109.9

Toledo vs Buffalo — College Basketball, Jan 23, 2027

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What to know

Offense vs defense: the four factorsHistory