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Ohio (13-17 in 2025–26) hosts Toledo (17-15 in 2025–26) on Dec 2, 2026.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
TOL offense ranks better in 4 of 4 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · OHIO defense in 0
OHIO offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · TOL defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 361 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
TOLOHIO
Expected pace: about 70 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 361 teams, 1st = best.
No lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Jackson Paveletzke's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson | 37.0 | 16.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. | 34.7 | 17.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Sean Craig | 31.6 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 1.4 |
| Austin Parks | 27.1 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.1 |
| Mynor Strong | 23.7 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 18.5 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt | 16.0 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Will James Jr. | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Paveletzke | 37.9 | 17.7 | 3.2 | 5.8 |
| Ajay Sheldon | 33.0 | 7.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Aidan Hadaway | 32.5 | 15.3 | 7.0 | 1.8 |
| JJ Kelly | 30.4 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 0.6 |
| Javan Simmons | 29.6 | 17.6 | 6.6 | 1.7 |
| Jalen Breath | 12.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.2 |
| Dior Conners | 10.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Kiir Kuany | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
TOL offenseper gameOHIO defenseRank among 361 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
TOLForAgainst50% of TOL's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
OHIOForAgainst47% of OHIO's points come in the first half, 47% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
TOL 10series0 OHIO| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 | OHIO 67 | TOL+12 | +12 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | OHIO 85 | TOL 101 | TOL+16 | +16 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | OHIO 85 | TOL 90 | TOL+5 | +5 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | OHIO 82 | TOL 96 | TOL+14 | +14 |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TOL 86 | OHIO 83 | TOL+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2024 | OHIO 83 | TOL 85 | TOL+2 | +2 |
| Jan 2, 2024 | TOL 86 | OHIO 77 | TOL+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2023 | OHIO 75 | TOL 82 | TOL+7 | +7 |
| Jan 17, 2023 | OHIO 75 | TOL 90 | TOL+15 | +15 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2022 | OHIO 62 | TOL 77 | TOL+15 | +15 |
From box scores. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | TOL17-13 · last 30 games | OHIO13-17 · last 30 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share of points scored in the 1st half | 48.3%#58 of 361 | 46.0%#253 of 361 | 46.8% |
| Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road) | −0.6#84 of 361 | +2.1#235 of 361 | −0.5 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +4.3#102 of 361 | −4.7#242 of 361 | −0.7 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.3#56 of 361 | 109.3#173 of 361 | 109.2 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 361 ranked teams, over each team's last 30 regular-season games (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.